October 2014 NY Auto Outlook

Data Thru September 2014

NEWYORK AUTOOUTLOOK tm a monthly report on vehicle sales in metro new york

SEPTEMBER VEHICLE SALES REPORT

metro area new retail car and light truck registrations

September Estimate*

August Actual

YTD thru September*

This table shows new retail light vehicle (car and light truck) registrations in the nine- county New York Metro Area. Figures exclude fleet transactions. * September 2014 figures were estimated by Auto Outlook. Data source: Polk.

2014 2013 % chg.

2014 2013 % chg.

2014 2013 % chg.

Industry Total

43,752 42,070 4.0% 46,914 43,378 8.2% 387,200 373,718 3.6%

Cars

21,116 21,685 -2.6% 23,108 23,018 0.4% 185,779 196,864 -5.6% 22,636 20,385 11.0% 23,806 20,360 16.9% 201,421 176,854 13.9%

Light Trucks

Detroit Three

10,994 10,290 6.8% 11,715 9,860 18.8% 99,046 88,810 11.5% 7,430 7,478 -0.6% 7,388 7,578 -2.5% 67,431 68,022 -0.9% 22,194 21,107 5.1% 24,633 23,102 6.6% 193,900 188,596 2.8% 3,134 3,195 -1.9% 3,178 2,838 12.0% 26,823 28,290 -5.2%

European Japanese

Korean

THIS MONTH’S SUMMARY: Results in the Metro Area new vehicle market during 2014 have been in line with expectations. Following several years of big gains, the pace of growth in area sales has eased a bit. As shown on page 2, area new retail registrations increased 11.6% in 2012, and 6.1% last year. Auto Outlook is projecting a smaller 3.9% increase for all of this year. but the market is still posting impressive gains. Registrations this year should exceed 2013 levels by almost 20,000 units, with the total easily exceeding 500,000.

1.) Area new vehicle market increased an estimated 4% in September of 2014 versus a year earlier. U.S. market was up 9.5% . 2.) Area market increased 3.6% during the first nine months of this year versus a year earlier, compared to 6.5% Nationally. 3.) The market is predicted to improve 3.9% from 2013 to 2014. 4.) Light truck market share rose to 52% thru September of this year, up 4.7 points . 5.) Honda , Toyota , Nissan , Jeep , and Ford were the new vehicle market share leaders during the first nine months of 2014. 6.) Area used vehicle market was up a slim 0.1% for the first eight months of this year.

months 9

The Greater New York Automobile Dealers Association (GNYADA) represents nearly 400 franchised new car dealerships in metro New York with combined annual sales totaling over $27 billion. GNYADA members are responsible for more than 57,000 jobs in the area and collect over $1.8 billion in state and local taxes annually.

RECAP OF AUGUST RESULTS

12% 16% 20%

Percent Change in Area Registrations August 2014 vs. August 2013

0% 4% 8%

11%

8.2%

New retail light vehicle registrations in the Metro Area increased 8.2% in August of ’14 versus a year earlier. Auto Outlook projected that registrations would improve by 11%. Last month’s increase was expected since year- earlier results in the area market tailed off a bit in August. Auto Outlook is projecting that September sales increased by 4% versus a year earlier. We will report on the accuracy of that projection in the November release.

-8% -4%

-2%0 -16% -12%

PG: 2 new york auto outlook : NEW VEHICLE MARKET October 2014 Issue 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 Registrations 452,076 New vehicle registrations 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 Apr Mar Feb Jan

Auto Outlook projected % change

Actual % change

RECENT RESULTS IN NEWVEHICLE MARKET

Monthly New Retail Light Vehicle Sales 2013 and 2014*

Percent Change in Area and U.S. New Vehicle Sales

10%

Metro NY U.S.

The area market increased 3.6% thru September of this year, while the U.S. market was up 6.5%.

2014 2013

9.5

8%

8.2

6%

6.5

5.6

4%

3.6

4.0

Monthly registrations increased by an estimated 4% in September 2014.

2%

0%

Change September'14* vs. September '13

Change August '14 vs. August '13

Change YTD '14 thru September* vs. YTD '13

Jul

Oct

Jun

Dec

Sep

Nov

Aug

May

* Figures for September 2014 were estimated by Auto Outlook.

NEWVEHICLE MARKET FORECAST

New York Metro Area Annual New Retail Registrations History and Forecast New retail % change Years registrations vs. prev. year

Area registrations are predicted to increase by 19,188 units in 2014.

508,500

489,312

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

452,076 410,906 351,809 397,196 413,207 461,113 489,312 508,500

-

461,113

410,906

-9.1%

413,207

397,196

-14.4% 12.9%

351,809

4.0%

11.6%

6.1% 3.9%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Forecast

Forecast

NEWVEHICLE SEGMENTS

PG: 3 NEW VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook October 2014 Issue

Japanese brands account for half of area market; Detroit Three share increases

Market Share - YTD 2014 thru September*

Change in share: YTD ‘14 thru September* vs. YTD ‘13

Korean 6.9%

Detroit Three

1.8

Japanese

-0.3

European 17.4%

Japanese 50.1%

European

-0.7

Detriot Three 25.6%

Korean

-0.8

0.5

1.5

2.0

1.0

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

*Figures for September 2014 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Source: Polk

SUV market share is up sharply in 2014; passenger car market share falls to 48%

Market Share - YTD 2014 thru September*

Change in share: YTD ‘14 thru September* vs. YTD ‘13

Pick ups/Vans 8.5%

SUVs

4.3

Pickups/Vans

Passenger Cars 48.0%

0.4

SUVs 43.5%

Passenger Cars

-4.7

7.0

2.0

4.5

-3.0

-0.5

-5.5

-8.0

*Figures for September 2014 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Source: Polk

Gasoline powered vehicles account for 95.7% of area market

Market Share - YTD 2014 thru August

Change in share: YTD ‘14 thru August vs. YTD ‘13

Diesel 1.0%

Electric 0.2%

Hybrid 3.1%

Diesel

0.2

Gasoline

0.0

Electric

-0.1

Gasoline 95.7%

Hybrid

-0.1

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

-0.05

-0.10

NEWVEHICLE BRANDS

BRAND REGISTRATIONS REPORT Metro Area New Retail Car and Light Truck Registrations

September Estimate*

Three Month Period (Jul‘14 thru Sep‘14)

YTD thru September*

2014*

2013 % change

2014*

2013 % change

2014*

2013 % change

PG: 4 new york auto outlook : NEW VEHICLE MARKET October 2014 Issue TOTAL Cars Light Trucks Domestic Brands European Brands Japanese Brands Korean Brands Acura Audi BMW Buick Cadillac Chevrolet Chrysler Dodge FIAT Ford GMC Honda Hyundai Infiniti Jaguar Jeep Kia Land Rover Lexus Lincoln Mazda Mercedes MINI Mitsubishi Nissan Porsche Ram Subaru Tesla Toyota Volkswagen Volvo Other

43,752 42,070

4.0% 136,952 132,494 3.4% 387,200 373,718 3.6%

21,116 21,685

-2.6%

66,716 69,216

-3.6%

185,779 196,864 -5.6%

22,636 20,385

11.0%

70,236 63,278

11.0%

201,421 176,854 13.9%

10,994 10,290

6.8%

34,722 31,151

11.5%

99,046 88,810 11.5%

7,430

7,478

-0.6%

22,907 23,709

-3.4%

67,431 68,022 -0.9%

22,194 21,107

5.1%

69,747 67,901

2.7%

193,900 188,596 2.8%

3,134

3,195

-1.9%

9,576

9,733

-1.6%

26,823 28,290 -5.2%

886 829

796 775

11.3% 7.0% 1.7% 4.5% -6.3% 12.8% -15.0% 0.0% -9.3% 19.7% 6.7%

2,958 2,779 5,528 1,826 5,920 1,922 1,975 853

3,188 2,506 5,911 2,107 5,573 2,162 1,984 873

-7.2% 10.9% -6.5% -2.3% -13.3%

8,630 8,120

9,619 -10.3% 7,277 11.6%

1,835

1,804

16,797 16,685 0.7%

303 641

290 684

2,486 4,946

2,449

1.5%

5,495 -10.0%

1,973

1,749

6.2%

16,606 16,109 3.1%

606 578 149

568 680 149

-11.1%

5,432 5,987 1,069

5,750 -5.5%

-0.5%

5,985

0.0%

330

452

-27.0%

1,115 -4.1%

2,410

2,657

8,068 2,229

8,027 1,815

0.5%

24,254 24,497 -1.0%

740

618

22.8% 2.3% -1.1% -17.3% -36.3% 49.5% -4.8% -0.8% 11.8% -5.3% 19.2% -1.4% -15.2% 34.4% -3.0% 30.8% 49.2% 20.4% -38.2% -15.4% -7.7% 57.5% 2.5%

6,141

5,256 16.8%

5,763 2,230

5,534 2,342

4.1% -4.8%

20,284 19,827

55,517 57,024 -2.6% 18,975 20,623 -8.0%

6,843 2,102

6,916 2,542

687

846

-18.8% -18.5% 38.1%

7,561

7,702 -1.8%

66

81

181

284

622

792

-21.5%

3,046

2,205

9,417 2,683

6,298 2,817

25,646 17,124 49.8%

854 240

853 280

0.1%

7,798 2,765

7,667 2,620

1.7% 5.5%

-14.3%

915

922

1,602

1,528

4.8% 5.3% 0.0% 3.1%

5,054 1,022 2,640 6,979

4,522 1,079 2,214 7,078

13,547 11,682 16.0%

400 739

380 739

2,940 7,245

2,705

8.7%

6,101 18.8%

2,633

2,555

21,143 19,460 8.6%

119 179

159 138

-25.2% 29.7% 14.5% 26.3% 22.5% -36.7% 9.0%

513 555

605 413

1,543 1,639

1,781 -13.4% 1,226 33.7%

5,396

4,712

14,190 14,628

39,963 38,505 3.8%

158 495

145 392

680

520

1,929 4,477

1,806

6.8%

1,643 5,054

1,101 4,198

2,914 53.6%

1,706

1,393

13,870 11,273 23.0%

38

60

68

110

316

452

-30.1%

5,094

5,419 1,116

-6.0%

16,766 16,358

45,774 45,408 0.8% 9,430 12,567 -25.0%

851 295 211

-23.7%

3,449

4,075 1,015

282 141

4.6%

937 589

2,431 1,601

2,931 -17.1% 1,118 43.2%

49.6%

374

Top ten ranked brands are shaded.

Data Source: Polk. *September’14 figures are estimated.

PG: 5 NEW VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook October 2014 Issue

NEWVEHICLE BRANDS

Percent Change in Area Registrations YTD ‘14 thru September* vs. YTD ‘13 Top 20 Selling Brands

Area and U.S. New Vehicle Market Share YTD ‘14 thru September* Top 20 Selling Brands

U.S. Area

14.3

Jeep

49.8

Honda

9.9

11.8

Subaru

23.0

Toyota

13.5

Jeep, Subaru, Mazda, GMC, Lexus, and Audi each had big increases so far this year.

10.3

Mazda

18.8

Nissan

7.7

6.6

16.8

GMC

Jeep

4.5

6.3

Lexus

16.0

Ford

12.5

5.5

Audi

11.6

Mercedes

Honda’s area market share was 14.3% versus 9.9% in the Nation.

2.1

4.9

Mercedes

8.6

Hyundai

4.3 4.3

3.8

Nissan

BMW

2.1

4.3

Chevrolet

3.1

Chevrolet

10.5

3.6

Kia

1.7

Subaru

3.7 3.5

0.8

Toyota

Lexue

2.1

2.4 2.2 2.2

0.7

BMW

Volkswagen

Dodge

0.0

Acura

1.1

2.1

-0.1

Ford

Audi

1.2

2.0

-1.8

In niti

In niti

0.8

2.0

Honda

-2.6

Kia

3.8

1.9

Mazda

Chrysler

-5.5

2.1

1.6

GMC

Hyundai

-8.0

3.0

1.5

Dodge

-10.3

Acura

3.2

1.4

Chrysler

Volkswagen

-25.0

1.3

0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15%

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Market Share

% change in new retail light vehicle registrations

*Figures for September ‘14 were estimated by Auto Outlook.

USED VEHICLE REPORT

METRO AREA USED CAR AND LIGHT TRUCK REGISTRATIONS August JuneThru August YTDThru August 2014 2013 % change Current Previous % change 2014 2013 % change

57,806 45,171 28.0% 160,928 148,916 8.1% 396,406 396,011 0.1 %

INDUSTRY TOTAL

Cars

32,345 25,932 24.7% 90,319 84,913 6.4% 220,456 225,509 -2.2% 25,461 19,239 32.3% 70,609 64,003 10.3% 175,950 170,502 3.2% 19,945 16,193 23.2% 55,886 53,552 4.4% 140,730 146,369 -3.9% 9,334 6,848 36.3% 26,168 22,661 15.5% 62,253 59,389 4.8% 25,895 20,292 27.6% 71,717 66,705 7.5% 176,586 174,727 1.1% 2,632 1,838 43.2% 7,157 5,998 19.3% 16,837 15,526 8.4% 4,470 3,394 31.7% 11,685 10,623 10.0% 24,286 24,398 4,556 3,642 25.1% 12,059 11,351 6.2% 25,934 26,565 -2.4% 6,050 4,371 38.4% 17,527 15,221 15.2% 43,255 40,184 7.6% 2,252 1,706 32.0% 6,598 5,707 15.6% 18,678 16,794 11.2% 1,981 2,174 -8.9% 5,540 7,190 -22.9% 13,601 18,941 -28.2% 38,497 29,884 28.8% 107,519 98,824 8.8% 270,652 269,129 0.6% -0.5

Light Trucks

PG: 6 new york auto outlook : NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET October 2014 Issue Detroit Three European Japanese Korean 2-year-old vehicles 3-year-old vehicles 4-year-old vehicles 5-year-old vehicles -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 12.0 YTD change in new vehicle registrations YTD change in used vehicle registrations

1-year-old or newer vehicles

6-year-old vehicles or older

Data Source: Polk.

As noted on page 8, monthly vehicle registration figures can occasionally be subject to fluctuations, typically due to processing delays by governmental agencies.This has likely contributed to the reported 28% increase in used vehicle registrationsYear-to-date figures will typically be more reflective and actual results.

Quarterly Percent Change in Area New and Used Vehicle Markets Second Quarter 2013 thru Third Quarter 2014

Used New

19.1

14.8

2.5

5.3

1.2

4.9

4.4

-5.6

-11.8

-11.5

-13.6

Q2 '13

Q3 '13

Q4 '13

Q1 '14

Q2 '14

Q3 '14

* New vehicle figures for theThird Quarter of 2014 are thru September. (September figures were estimated). Used vehicles include July and August only.

Year-To-Date Comparison (thru August)

Used up 0.1%

New up 3.6%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%

COUNTY MARKETS (NEW & USED VEHICLES)

PG: 7 NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook October 2014 Issue

COUNTY NEW AND USED MARKETS

New Retail Registrations

Used Retail Registrations

Jun ‘14 Jun ‘13

YTD ‘14

YTD ‘13

Jun ’14 Jun ‘13

YTD ‘14

YTD ‘13

Thru

Thru

%

Thru Aug

Thru Aug

%

Thru

Thru

%

Thru Aug

Thru

%

Aug ’14 Aug ‘13 Change

Change

Aug ’14 Aug ‘13 Change

Aug change

Bronx

5,662 5,075 12% 14,018 12,744 10% 12,446 11,192 11% 32,245 13,321 12,450 7% 32,953 31,818 4% 17,897 16,428 9% 44,222

31,115 4% 44,334 0% 20,170 -6% 61,141 -4% 65,661 -1% 14,621 3% 18,403 -6% 97,147 2% 43,419 4%

Brooklyn

Manhattan

7,710 7,211 7% 18,484 17,840 4%

7,811 7,545 4% 18,911

Nassau Queens

29,791 28,385 5% 73,261 73,168 0% 24,167 23,000 5% 58,956 19,457 17,683 10% 47,168 44,619 6% 26,179 24,699 6% 65,195

Rockland

6,022 5,572 8% 14,749 14,157 4% 9,435 9,057 4% 23,900 23,750 1%

6,155 5,664 9% 15,082 7,028 6,555 7% 17,370

Staten Island

Suffolk

30,038 27,118 11% 73,326 68,750 7% 40,846 36,924 11% 99,441 18,686 18,102 3% 45,589 44,802 2% 18,399 16,909 9% 44,984

Westchester

TOTAL

140,122 130,653 7% 343,448 331,648 4% 160,928 148,916 8% 396,406 396,011 0%

Data Source: Polk.

Top three are shaded.

new vehicle market share in area counties Top 30 Selling Brands in Area, YTD 2014 Thru August

Brand

Bronx

Brooklyn Manhattan

Nassau

Queens

Rockland Staten Island Suffolk

Westchester

Honda Toyota Nissan

17.9 18.1 12.7

18.3 16.1 10.3

9.4

13.1

17.1 16.8 13.0

14.2 15.3 10.0

15.2

12.3 10.3 10.1

15.5

10.6

9.5

8.6

9.1 6.3 7.3 6.1 6.2 3.1 6.0 3.8 6.7 3.8 2.2 4.0 3.0 1.6 2.0 1.9 1.1 1.7 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.4

4.9 6.0 4.9 2.4 9.6 2.4 2.9 4.4 2.7 2.2 5.5 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.7 1.4 0.4 0.6 2.8 0.4 1.3 2.2 0.3 1.0 1.3

10.6

11.8

Jeep Ford

5.1 6.0 2.8 5.5 2.4 4.4 2.6 2.1 2.2 2.9 0.7 2.6 1.2 1.3 2.4 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.9 0.2 0.2

4.5 5.2 4.5 3.2 4.0 2.9 2.4 5.7 2.1 2.1 1.3 1.7 3.0 1.3 1.6 0.8 3.2 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5

7.2 5.8 6.5 5.2 4.7 4.0 3.1 3.5 2.5 2.3 2.6 1.7 2.2 2.2 1.5 2.4 1.4 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4

5.2 4.5 4.7 4.9 3.5 3.8 2.9 3.4 2.2 2.4 1.4 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.7 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4

5.3 7.5 4.6 5.2 3.3 3.3 6.0 2.8 1.7 1.8 1.6 2.6 1.4 2.0 1.5 1.4 2.5 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4

6.2 9.7 4.5 5.7 3.3 3.5 2.1 4.3 2.6 1.3 1.1 4.2 2.9 1.9 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3

8.1 8.0 3.9 6.5 3.3 6.6 3.3 2.1 3.2 1.4 1.7 2.3 1.5 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.1 1.5 2.5 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2

Mercedes Hyundai

11.9

BMW

Chevrolet

Subaru

Lexus

Volkswagen

Acura

Audi

Kia

Infiniti Mazda Dodge

GMC

Chrysler Cadillac

Ram

Lincoln

Land Rover

Buick Volvo

Porsche

Mitsubishi

MINI Other

Data Source: Polk.

The top three counties for each brand are shaded.

MODELS (NEW & USED VEHICLES)

New Vehicles Top 25 New Models - YTD 2014 thru August

Used Vehicles Top 25 Used Models - YTD 2014 thru August

Toyota Corolla BMW 3-Series Nissan Rogue Honda CR-V Honda Civic Toyota Camry Nissan Altima Honda Accord

Honda Civic Honda CR-V Honda Accord

15,191

5,502

13,639

5,018 4,928

10,420

PG: 8 new york auto outlook : NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET October 2014 Issue 0 Ford Fusion BMW 3-Series Ford Explorer Hyundai Elantra Nissan Sentra Toyota Highlander JeepWrangler Subaru Forester Honda Odyssey Mercedes E-Class Ford Escape Toyota Corolla Toyota Sienna Honda Pilot Lexus RX Jeep Cherokee Hyundai Sonata Toyota RAV4 Nissan Rogue Toyota Camry Nissan Altima Jeep Grand Cherokee 4,509 4,476 4,438 4,175 4,164 4,146 3,962 3,890 3,802 3,678

9,937 10,002

4,069

3,745

3,326 3,283

9,097

8,850

8,379

2,725

Mercedes M-Class In niti G Hyundai Elantra Ford Escape Honda Odyssey Nissan Maxima Mercedes E-Class Nissan Sentra BMW 5-Series Volkswagen Jetta Ford E-Series Toyota RAV4 Jeep Grand Cherokee Toyota Sienna Mercedes C-Class Honda Pilot Hyundai Sonata

6,498

2,568

5,154

2,439 2,412

4,845 4,842 4,833

Accord, CR-V, and Civic were at the top of the new vehicle sales chart. Grand Cherokee was in fourth.

Mid Sized cars are the leaders in the used vehicle market. Accord, Altima, and Camry were ranked rst thru third, respectively.

2,238 2,231 2,217

4,594 4,589

2,085

1,890 1,878 1,851 1,850

1,794 1,753 1,718

1,690 1,644 1,616

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

0

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

New retail light vehicle registrations

New retail light vehicle registrations

HOW DATA IS COMPILED All data represents retail vehicle registrations in the New York Metro Area and excludes fleet and wholesale transactions. September 2014 figures were estimated by Auto Outlook based on recent trends in the Metro Area market, seasonal factors, and results in the National market. Please keep in mind that monthly registration figures can occasionally be subject to fluctuations, resulting in over or under estimation of actual results. This usually occurs due to processing delays by governmental agencies. For this reason, the year-to-date figures will typically be more reflective of market results. For year-to-date figures, most recent month (September) is estimated and previous months are actual. Historical registration figures were recently updated by Polk, and will differ slightly from those presented in previous issues.

Any material quoted must be attributed to Auto Outlook and GNYADA. New and Used Vehicle Auto Outlook is produced by Auto Outlook Inc. for the Greater New York Automobile Dealers Association. Statements contained or incorporated by reference in this publication that are not historical facts (including those that GNYADA or Auto Outlook, Inc. believes, expects, anticipates, plans, intends, foresees, it appears, a fact portends that or other similar expressions) are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on the current expectations and beliefs of GNYADA or Auto Outlook concerning future developments and their potential effects on the automobile industry. There can be no assurance that future developments affecting the automobile industry will be those anticipated by GNYADA or Auto Outlook, Inc. These forward-looking statements are based on the current expectations and beliefs of GNYADA and/or Auto Outlook concerning future developments and their potential effects on the automobile industry. Consequently, Auto Outlook and GNYADA are not responsible for management decisions based on the content of New and Used Vehicle Auto Outlook. Data provided by: Polk GNYADA: 718.746.5900 • info@gnyada.com • 18-10 Whitestone Expressway, Whitestone, NY 11357 Media inquiries: Sams Crispe Communications • 212.560.9494 • questions@samscrispe.com

NEW YORK AUTO OUTLOOK Prepared by: Auto Outlook, Inc. PO Box 390 Exton, PA 19341 Editor: Jeffrey A. Foltz NewYork Auto Outlook is published by the Greater NewYork Automobile Dealers Association and is provided free of charge to all members as an added benefit of Association membership. Copyright GNYADA, October 2014