Activity Survey 2014
Looking ahead, 25 fields are expected to start production in the next two years, bringing combined reserves of 1.3 billion boe on-stream. By 2018, 40 per cent of production will come from new field developments; this emphasises the need to continually develop opportunities from exploration finds. In 2014, production is forecast to be in a range of 1.4-1.5 million boepd benefitting from the effect of the new fields coming on-stream and higher production efficiency from existing assets. Considerable uncertainty remains on the production outlook over the remainder of the decade. However, Oil & Gas UK’s central case assumes production will rise gradually to around 1.7 million boepd in 2018 with an uncertainty of +/- 0.3 million boepd, after which it may begin to decline again unless the pace of new developments is sustained.
1
2
3
Figure 26: Production Forecast for the UK Continental Shelf
4
3.0
2.5
5
Upper
2.0
Central
6
1.5
Lower
1.0
7
Total Production (Million boepd)
0.5
8
0.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Oil & Gas UK, DECC
9
10
11
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