ENTSOG GRIP BEMIP 2014-2023 / Main Report

Executive Summary

The completion of the gas internal market, increase of security of supply and fostering of competition are the main priorities outlined in the European Union’s (EU) energy policy. The Regulation No. 347 / 2013 on guide- lines for trans-European energy infrastructure aims to accelerate the development of infrastructure projects having regional importance, so called “projects of com- mon interest” (PCI) in the certain priority corridors. The first EU-wide List of PCIs was adopted by the European Commission (EC) on 14 October 2013. It consists of 248 energy infrastructure projects, including 15 projects of gas infrastructure in the BEMIP region. If implemented, these projects will significantly change the picture of the gas markets in the region, first of all, by interconnecting currently separate sub-regions such as 1) Finland, 2) Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, 3) Poland, 4) Denmark and Sweden, and integrating even four Member States (Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) into common European gas market, and secondly providing access on a considerable scale to global liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets. For the countries in the region that rely, either fully or to a large extent, on a single supplier this would be a major shift, bringing from one side more choices and opportunities for the gas market players, and from another side requiring adequate changes in legislation and commercial practices of gas companies to accommodate an increased market complexity. With respect to the role of the gas in energy market, the expected paths differ with- in the region – despite that the total gas demand is expected to increase by 33% in 2023 compared to 2014 when average daily demand will be at the level of 870GWh. The increase is mainly driven by expected soaring demand in the biggest market of the region – Poland which forecasts decreasing coal-fired power pro­ duction. In some other countries, like Estonia, Latvia, Sweden and Finland increase in grid-related gas demand is foreseen, but in the latter strongly surpassed by the off-grid gas usage mainly supplied through LNG infrastructure. In Denmark and Lithuania the demand is expected to drop because of increasing share of renewables in their energy mix. The anticipated demand changes are also determining factor for the development of gas infrastructures.

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Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan GRIP 2014–2023