ENTSOG GRIP BEMIP 2014-2023 / Main Report

ENERGY MIX

The energy mix in Denmark is dominated by oil, natural gas and coal. Renewable energy accounted for 23% of the energy consumption in 2012. Denmark has been net exporter of natural gas since the beginning of the 1980’s, and is expected to remain the net exporter until 2021.

mcm

5,000

23

Oil Natural gas Coal and coke Waste, non-renewable Renewable energy

4,000

37

2

%

3,000

2,000

19

19

1,000

0

2013

2018

2023

2028

2033

2038

Expected reserves

Trym, Energinet.dk’s estimate

Figure 2.22: Total energy consumption in Denmark, 2012 (Source: Danish Energy Agency)

Figure 2.23: Expected Danish natural gas production, 2013 – 2040 (Source: Danish Energy Agency)

SUPPLY / DEMAND

In spring 2013, the supply-demand situation became near-critical as Energinet.dk issued 2 Early Warnings only weeks apart due to a critical gas supply situation. Early Warning is the lowest warning level in Energinet.dk’s emergency supply pre- paredness. The next steps are “Alert” and “Emergency”. The crisis was caused by a rare overlap of a number of unfortunate circumstances: First warning In March 2013, gas supplies were more or less normal; only supplies from the Danish part of the North Sea were a little lower than expected. On the other hand, the spring temperatures were extraordinary low, and more gas than expected was therefore being used, leading to declining stocks that could be depleted by April 2013. This prompted Energinet.dk (the TSO and responsible one for the emergency preparedness) to issue an Early Warning to the market players on 18 March 2013 asking them to rectify the situation and restore balance to the market. The market caught the signals, supplies from the North Sea rose again and after 10 days, on 27 March 2013, the situation was called off. Second warning On 27 April 2013, Mærsk Oil &Gas, which operates the Tyra platform in the North Sea responsible for 90% of the total Danish gas production, announced that they expected to suspend production for 6 days due to repairs. Then, on 28 April 2013, Stenlille, one of two internal gas storage facilities, announced that the withdrawal capacity would be reduced the next 3–4 days. The technical issues were solved, but complications arose which in fact interrupted North Sea supplies for 10 days – the longest interruption in North Sea gas supplies to date. After the critical situation in March, the gas stocks were depleted, prompting Energinet.dk to issue yet another Early Warning on 29 April 2013.

Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan GRIP 2014–2023 | 41