ENTSOG GRIP BEMIP 2014-2023 / Main Report

The gas stocks approached a lower level, corresponding to the volumes the TSO is obliged to reserve for protected consumers such as private customers, hospitals and small enterprises. In the beginning of May 2013 the situation was sufficiently critical that Energinet.dk considered increasing the warning level to “Alert”. Indications that repairs on the Tyra platform progressed as planned and meant that the Early Warning was eventually called off with a return to a stable supply level. Overall supply-demand balance Temporarily, the overall gas balance is tight. Natural gas supplies from the Danish part of the North Sea have been declining markedly over recent years. However, production is expected to recover somewhat from 2015 and for some years ahead. The margin arrives from new field development, while supplies from producing fields are dwindling. The expected expansion in Germany in combination with supplies from the North Sea, will secure the gas supply to Sweden and Denmark at least until 2020, as sufficient import capacity will be established to cover the expected demand. After 2020, the expected demand in Denmark will be covered by increased import and by supplies from the North Sea and green gases.

National demand

Country: Denmark Normal conditions: 0°C Gross calorific value: 12.1 kWh /m³

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Peak demand mcm / day

17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6

GWh / day

213.0 213.0 213.0 213.0 213.0 213.0 213.0 213.0 213.0 213.0

Yearly demand bcm / year

3.1 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2

TWh / year

36.0 35.3 34.2 33.0 31.9 30.7 29.5 28.7 27.8 26.9

Table 2.9: Forecasts for national demand, Denmark

mcm

In 2013, Energinet.dk made a projection of gas consumption in Sweden and Denmark up to 2025. The Danish system expansion towards Germany was completed in 2013. The supply picture assumes that the first phase of the expansion in Germany will be completed in 2014. It is further assumed that the Danish Hejre gas field will commence production in 2015. In its projection, Energinet.dk also assumes that further expansion of the North German system has been completed by the end of 2015. In this way, the Danish and Swedish markets will be supplied from Germany and from the North Sea at least until 2025. The projected gas consumption is shown in figure 2.24. The total natural gas and biogas consumption in Den- mark, excluding field consumption in the North Sea, is expected to decline from approximately 3.5bcm/ year (151 PJ) in 2013 to approximately 2.8 bcm / year (118PJ) in 2022.

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

Denmark Sweden

Export Germany Export The Netherlands The North Sea and import Germany

Import Germany

Figure 2.24: Projection of gas production, supplies and consumption, 2014 – 2025

42 |

Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan GRIP 2014–2023