ENTSOG GRIP BEMIP 2014-2023 / Main Report

The focus of the Study was the modeling of gas supply flows in the Baltic states and Finland. Modeling is made by means of the Plant Flow software developed by Bentley System Incorporated, as a mathematical model of combined pipeline systems of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Balticconnector pipeline between Estonia and Finland. The Study is concentrating on the area of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Finland. The model was applied for calculations of gas flows on normal business day of cold weather conditions and flow distributions in the joint gas supply system of East- Baltic countries in the event of various emergency situations at the entry points, i.e. gas sources. In framework of the work, the authors applied the data of forecasts on the develop- ment of the gas market produced by the Estonian, Latvian, Lithuanian and Finnish TSOs, based on their estimates made at Q1 2013 and ENTSOG Ten Year Network Development Plan 2013–2022 information, updated in summer 2013. As agreed by the TSOs of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Finland, the calculations were based on the most probable baseline scenario. Calculations were made for years 2015 and 2020 assuming that the proposed projects will be implemented. For winter of 2015 the case of normal business day and 7 disruption scenarios were analysed.

LEGEND OF THE MAPS IN THIS CHAPTER

Keys

Project facilities

Cross-border EU or non-EU export. Under construction or planned

Gas flow rate in million cubic meters per day (mcm / d)

LNG Import terminal. Under construction or planned

LNG flow rate in million cubic meters per day (mcm / d)

Cross-border interconnection point within EU and with non-EU third country (export)

Compressor station

Closed valve

Cross-border interconnection point within EU and with non-EU third country (import)

Gas flow / pressure regulator

Non-EU Cross-border interconnection point

Pressure in control points

Gas pressure increase on Compressor station (from / to)

Transport by pipeline

under 20"

Pressure reduction on flow regulator (from / to)

20" to 36"

project

Disruption point

Pipeline diameter

Gas consumption in million cubic meters per day (mcm / d)

Gas deficit in million cubic meters per day (mcm / d)

Gas storage facilities

Aquifier

Bottle neck

Cavern

Storage existing or planned

Gas storage facilities in non-ENTSOG Member countries

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Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan GRIP 2014–2023