ENTSOG GRIP BEMIP 2014-2023 / Main Report

Conclusions

If we compare the situation with the previous GRIP, the progress in implementation of major investments in the region is clearly seen. In Poland a highly demanded reverse capacity in Yamal pipeline is used to import gas from Western gas markets. Ellund-Egtved project in Denmark enabled higher import capacities for Danish and Swedish markets and substantially increase flexibity to cope with security of supply issues. 2014 will mark the onset of era of LNG terminals in the BEMIP region, with two LNG import terminals in Świnoujście and Klaipeda being operational by the end of the year. However, due to inexistent (in case of Poland) and limited infrastructure (in case of Lithuania) with other countries in the region, the use of these terminals for the needs of other countries in the region will be dependant on still non-FID transmission infrastructure (Gas Interconnection Poland-Lithuania, Capacity enhancement of Klaipeda-Kiemenai pipeline and Latvia-Lithuania interconnection) planned to be built. Modernization and expansion of Inčukalns UGS will enable the East-Baltic region not only to improve security of gas supply, but also to take advantages from the winter-summer gas price swing. Looking further, a set of LNG terminal projects are planned to be implemented in the region: Regional LNG terminal in the Gulf of Finland (Finland or Estonia) and two other LNG terminals located off-grid in Finland (Pansio and Tornio ManGa), Gothenburg LNG in Sweden and expansion of LNG terminal in Świnoujście. In addition in Poland the interconnection projects with other neigbouring countries – Czech Republic and Slovakia, as well as the enhancement of entry capacity from Yamal Pipeline – are planned. Additional entry capacities will provide market opportunities for the substantially growing demand and better integration with EU gas markets. The implementation of all these projects will make substantial change the supply framework, market structure, use of transmission networks and underground gas storages. However, investments decisions on these projects will depend largely on external financing. 15 infrastructure projects, belonging to the BEMIP region, are included in the first EU-wide List of PCIs which was adopted by the EC on 14 October 2013. The PCI status should alleviate and enable implementation of these projects, as the natural size of the regional markets in contrast with investment needs for the diversification and integration of the region is relatively small, making the imple­ mentation of key projects impossible without the EU financial support. In addition, a process of cross-border cost allocation, in which the costs of infrastructure of regional importance is distributed between the benefiting Member States, was start- ed following the procedures of TEN-E Regulation. In spring of 2014, the National Regulatory Authorities should take a decision on the cost allocation on the projects like Finngulf LNG terminal and Balticconnector, Gas Interconnection Poland – Lithuania, Gas Interconnection Poland – Czech, Gas Interconnection Poland – Slovakia, Modernization of Inčukalns Underground Gas Storage, Capacity enhance- ment of Klaipeda-Kiemenai pipeline. Such process will be a challenge both for National Regulatory Authorities and TSOs which Investement requests are being analysed. The TSOs of the BEMIP region have prepared the second Gas Regional Investment Plan. Now they are faced with challenge for implementing it, adjusting it to the changing environment and thus achieving the targets set for the upcoming years.

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Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan GRIP 2014–2023