Analysis of the Return on Investment and Economic Impact of Education

Return on investment to taxpayers Taxpayer costs are reported in Table 3.4, on the next page, and come to $84.8 million, equal to the contribution of state and local government to MCC. In return for their public support, taxpayers are rewarded with an investment benefit-cost ratio of 4.9 (= $419.2 million ÷ $84.8 million), indicating a profitable investment. At 14.8%, the rate of return to state and local taxpayers is favorable. Given that the stakeholder in this case is the public sector, we use the discount rate of 1.4%, the real treasury interest rate recommended by the Office of Management and Budget for 30-year investments. 33 This is the return governments are assumed to be able to earn on generally safe investments of unused funds, or alternatively, the interest rate for which governments, as relatively safe borrowers, can obtain funds. A rate of return of 1.4% would mean that the college just pays its own way. In principle, governments could borrow monies used to support MCC and repay the loans out of the resulting added taxes and reduced government expenditures. A rate of return of 14.8%, on the other hand, means that MCC not only pays its own way, but also generates a surplus that the state and local government can use to fund other programs. It is unlikely that other government programs could make such a claim. New York benefits from the education that MCC provides through the earnings that students create in the state and through the savings that they generate through their improved lifestyles. To receive these benefits, however, members of society must pay money and forego services that they otherwise would have enjoyed if MCC did not exist. Society’s investment in MCC stretches across a number of investor groups, from students to employers to taxpayers. We weigh the benefits generated by MCC to these investor groups against the total social costs of generating those benefits. The total social costs include all MCC expenditures, all student expenditures SOCIAL PERSPECTIVE

by the number of students who achieved CHEs at each step. The sum of these marginal differences counts as the upper bound measure of the number of students who, due to the education they received at the college, will not have poor health, commit crimes, or claim welfare and unemployment benefits. We dampen these results by the ability bias adjustment discussed earlier in the student perspective section and in Appendix 5 to account for factors (besides education) that influence individual behavior. We then multiply the marginal effects of education times the associated costs of health, crime, welfare, and unemployment. 32 Finally, we apply the same adjustments for attrition and alternative education to derive the net savings to the government. Table 3.3 displays all benefits to taxpayers. The first row shows the added tax revenues created in the state, equal to $397.5 million, from students’ higher earnings, increases in non-labor income, and spending impacts. A breakdown in government savings by health, crime, and welfare/unemployment-related savings appears next. These total to $21.7 million. The sum of the social savings and the added income in the state is $419.2 million, as shown in the bottom row of Table 3.3. These savings continue to accrue in the future as long as the FY 2014-15 student population of MCC remains in the workforce.

TABLE 3.3: Present value of added tax revenue and government savings (thousands)

Added tax revenue

$397,469

GOVERNMENT SAVINGS

Health-related savings

$8,041

Crime-related savings

$12,585

Welfare/unemployment-related savings

$1,068

Total government savings

$21,694

Total taxpayer benefits

$419,163

Source: Emsi impact model.

32 For a full list of the data sources used to calculate the social externalities, see the References and Resource section. See also Appendix 4 for a more in-depth description of the methodology.

33 See the Office of Management and Budget, Real Treasury Interest Rates in “Table of Past Years Discount Rates” from Appendix C of OMB Circular No. A-94 (revised December 2012).

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