WCA January 2013

From the americas

Statue of Liberty Image from BigStockPhoto.com Photographer: Marty

❖ The problematic satellite project is run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a Department of Commerce unit, together with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The scathing analysis of NOAA’s performance cites years of underfunding, questions the government’s cost estimates for the programme, and deplores the failure of those in charge to think through their alternatives when the gap arrives. Alleged mismanagement of the $13 billion programme, which goes back a decade, was recently described as a “national embarrassment” by a top official of the Commerce Department. The outside review team, led by A Thomas Young, an aerospace industry leader, called the management of the programme “dysfunctional.” A remedy may be in the pipeline. Top Commerce and NOAA officials have ordered an overhaul of the programme. Mr Cushman reported that they have moved quickly to nail down the specific designs of JPSS-1 components, many already partly built. And they have promised to quickly complete a new independent cost estimate to clarify the programme’s budget. “There is no more critical strategic issue for our weather satellite programs than the risk of gaps in satellite coverage,” wrote Jane Lubchenco, the under secretary of Commerce responsible for NOAA, in a recent memorandum ordering the urgent restructuring of the programme. The Obama administration, Ms Lubchenco asserted, has been trying all along to fix “this dysfunctional programme that had become a national embarrassment due to chronic management problems.” One of the experts interviewed by the Herald Tribune (See “Aging US satellites,” above) is Dennis Hartmann, the chairman of a broad review of earth-observing satellite programmes released in May by the National Research Council. It discloses, Mr Hartmann said, “a long, sad history.” The Hartmann findings caused Mr Cushman to reflect on what the US stands to lose by the decline of one of “the crown jewels of modern earth and atmospheric science.” The Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) includes important sensors for studying global climate. As difficulties at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have affected the programme, this capability is now at risk. But the main JPSS satellites, about the size of small school buses, are most notable for the instruments for sensing atmospheric moisture and temperature that they put into the “polar pm” orbit. This is a passage from lower altitude that provides sharp and frequent images of weather patterns spanning the globe. In contrast, Mr Cushman pointed out, other satellites stare continuously at one part of the globe from farther off, for short-term forecasting. Pole-to-pole satellites: silent, unblinking sentinels

Telecom

The approaching death of US polar satellites portends a major storm-damage threat to life, property, commerce “Predicting a satellite’s lifetime is like guessing when a light bulb goes out. The most likely timing of a gap in coverage is between 2016 and 2018, according to the best official estimates.” The estimates referenced by John H Cushman, Jr in the International Herald Tribune (26 th October) were derived from independent reviews – by the Commerce Department inspector general, the Government Accountability Office, and a blue-ribbon team of outside experts – published summer 2012. All three were sharply critical of a federal satellite programme for monitoring storms and called for urgent remedies. The “gap” is the period of at least a year during which the US will likely be without crucial satellites that provide invaluable data for predicting storm tracks. (“Aging Satellite Fleet May Mean Gaps in Storm Forecasts”) Over the past two years experts have grown increasingly alarmed because the existing polar satellites are nearing or beyond their life expectancies, and the next replacement, known as JPSS-1, is not due for commissioning until early 2017. The probable absence of coverage will be no small thing. As described in the Herald Tribune , the endangered satellites fly pole-to-pole orbits and cross the Equator in the afternoon, scanning the whole planet one strip at a time. Along with orbiters on other timetables, they are among the most effective tools used to predict the paths of major storms up to five days in advance. With Hurricane Sandy gathering strength in the Caribbean, the publication date of Mr Cushman’s article was timely. Throughout the previous week, forecasters had been relying on satellite observations for almost all of the data needed to refine preliminary (and widely divergent) computer models of Sandy’s intentions: To explode against the northeastern seaboard? Or to veer harmlessly away into the open Atlantic? Experiments show that without this kind of satellite data forecasters would have underestimated by half the “Snowmageddon” blizzard that struck Washington, DC in 2010. Other disasters recalled by Mr Cushman were Tropical Storm Irene in 2011 and, in a longer view backward, the great hurricane of 1938 which hit New York without warning and killed hundreds on Long Island. Said Craig J Craft, the current commissioner of emergency management for the Nassau County area of Long Island, “We cannot afford to lose any enhancement that allows us to accurately forecast any weather event coming our way.”

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Wire & Cable ASIA – January/February 2013