Outlook on climate change adaptation in the Tropical Andes mountains

catchment area and, therefore, for all watersheds. The IWRM perspective has aspects for improving the adaptive capacity and diminishing exposure to climate change. This includes, for instance, the understanding that watershed sections (upper, mid and lower) are interconnected through flows and feedbacks of water, chemicals, sediments and organisms. Additionally, the emphasis on multi- level management offers institutional flexibility for responding to extreme climate events, adapting to long-term climate change, and including elements of adaptive governance of water. In addition to the temporal scale, we must consider the institutional scale in assessing whether policies are forward-looking. In so doing, we can evaluate whether policies include paths and evidence for achieving results in climate change adaptation. In the Andean countries analysed, most national policies for adaptation to climate change are in the initial phases, distributing responsibilities (and hopefully funding) among sectors. Also, even if the scientific evidence was incorporated into policy design, policies are not addressing mountains as a policy target yet, which limits its capacity to be forward-looking. Moreover, it seems that countries have chosen the multisectoral policies path (which is commonly favoured in environmental management, although an integrated approach would be preferable) towards climate change adaptation, which requires institutional coordination, resources, leadership and vision for effective performance. It is too soon to know how the chosen path will respond to abrupt changes, which require effective rapid responses, and long-term changes, which require dynamic and flexible policies adjustable to uncertainty and changing conditions. The mismatch between sectors’ actions and climate change effects on ecosystems is a policy gap. In other words, because ecosystems do not correspond

to specific sectors and vice versa, climate change impacts on ecosystems remain largely unattended. Though risks tend to be addressed by sectoral actions, some risks may be shared by more than one sector: for example, water risks are shared by health, agriculture, energy and environment, among other sectors. As for mountains, many sectors could be involved, depending on the particular risk. In this scenario, forward-looking policies should strengthen institutional arrangements at all levels, involving public, private and other social actors from the regional and local levels in policy implementation. The effects of many of the identified risks are amplified by prevalent non-climatic problems (e.g. poverty, marginalization). Thus, a forward-looking institutional approach would link adaptation policies and non-climatic policies through plans for subnational units, which are known in some countries as territorial management plans. Additionally, when these plans are scaled up to the national level (e.g. Colombian National Adaptation Plan) they offer broad scope for adaptation policies to be included in specific territories. Moreover, territorial plans may address problems, which may later positively impact on the adaptive capacity of ecosystems. Moreover, an effective climate change adaptation policy would have to understand the coupled sector-ecosystems interactions, vulnerabilities and feedback. This understanding is a step towards managing risk reduction and adapting to climate change. Climate change will increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, with future scenarios indicating increasing severity of climate change impacts in the Andean countries. Furthermore, the ever-expanding integration and interdependency within the region may increase the trans-boundary impacts of climate change.Therefore, instruments of regional integration should consider

strategies for collaboratively addressing large- scale events (e.g. El Niño), including observation, monitoring, data and lesson sharing, and investment schemes for improved adaptation and resilience to climate change at the regional level. Regional institutions that play an active role in understanding climate impacts - such as the International Research Centre for El Niño (CIIFEN) - and academia should play an active role in collaboratively addressing and understanding these large-scale events. Increasing urbanization of Andean cities and expanding economic activities will continue to drive demand for energy and other resources and services. Therefore, in the long-term, mountains may gain further strategic importance in supplying hydropower and other services to cities and lowlands. Additionally, in a scenario of increased vulnerability of countries’ energy supplies to climatic variability and change, establishing a regional energy network across the Andes could help provide a redundant energy supply.

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