URI_Research_Magazine_2009-2010_Melissa-McCarthy

Enhancing Economic Development in Rhode Island

The Epicenter of Tsunami Prediction Research

Stephan Grilli, University of Rhode Island Distinguished Professor of Ocean Engineering, has been collaborating with fellow URI ocean engineering professors Malcolm Spaulding and Annette Grilli-Delrez along with Raymond Sepe, Jr., and Steven Bastien of Electro Standards Laboratories in Cranston, Rhode Island to develop a renewable wave- energy-powered generator for free-floating ocean buoys. This cutting- edge development is crucial to acquiring wave data that can be used for ocean engineering design and disaster prediction and preparedness, in particular regarding tsunami coastal hazards, and could stimulate local business opportunities in related areas. A 9.1 magnitude earthquake, the third-largest ever recorded, struck the coast of Sumatra, Indonesia, on December 26, 2004. The devastating Indian Ocean tsunami that followed killed more than 280,000 people. Tsunamis are caused by a number of natural occurrences including earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, but other natural hazards such as hurricanes, can cause similar coastal destruction. In 1938, Rhode Island experienced the deadly effects of a hurricane, which generated tsunami- like surges as high as 18 feet. “In that instance,” says Grilli, “models to predict the wave magnitudes and inundation levels would have saved countless lives.” The only way to avoid a natural disaster is to be prepared for it, according to Grilli. He is a world-renowned expert in computational wave and fluid dynamics, coastal and surf-zone modeling, and wave-structure interaction. In other words he is researching the science of tsunami prediction. “For each type of tsunami, the ability to predict wave magnitudes, arrival times to shorelines, and inundation levels is critical to public safety,” he says.

Over the last 20 years and with funding from the Office of Naval Research and National Science Foundation (NSF), Grilli has developed a numerical wave tank, a computer model that simulates physical processes taking place in actual wave tanks. His most recent grant for $200,000 was provided by the Rhode Island Science and Technology Advisory Council. “To predict generation and impact, the NOAA [National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration] Tsunami Warning Centers use a variety of tsunami generation and propagation/impact models. My research helps to improve the state of the art in modeling and eventually will help make more accurate real-time predictions.” says Grilli. In the past few years, a $160,000 research grant from FM Global, an international insurance company based in Rhode Island, has allowed Grilli to research both distant transoceanic earthquakes and landslide tsunami sources and their impact on the East Coast. “In essence,” he says, “recreating a realistic history of potential tsunami events, allows us to estimate 100-year and 500-year return period events and their impact. This work not only prepares insurance companies to qualify their rates for the designated areas, but also informs policy surrounding disaster preparedness.” After the Indonesian tsunami in 2004, Grilli co-organized an international team of 27 scientists who traveled to the region for a 17-day research expedition to study the sea floor near the epicenter of the earthquake that triggered the devastating Indian Ocean tsunami. The expedition was filmed by the Discovery Channel and broadcast in 2005. Using remotely-operated vehicles and other techniques, scientists found

Possible tsunami effects of February 27, 2010 Chile earthquake

The University of Rhode Island 24