GRIP CEE 2017 / Main Report

3.1 General Note

This assessment chapter focuses on the ability of the European gas system to meet the supply-demand balance under stress scenarios. The CEE GRIP provides a look at two different stress scenarios which were not presented in the TYNDP 2017. These stress scenarios are a simultaneous disruption of the gas supply routes via Ukraine and Belarus and a disruption of the Russian gas supply source. The situation under normal condi- tions is also presented in the chapter in order to provide a baseline comparison as to how the CEE region is affected by these two specific stress scenarios. Assessment results for CEE GRIP-specific simulations are based on the TYNDP 2017 methodology and data set. Specifically, all data serving as the basis for infrastructure modelling in the CEE region originate from the TYNDP 2017, and all relevant data were collected by ENTSOG in a dedicated collection process. The ENTSOG simulation tool was used to model the scenarios described, which ensures consistency with the TYNDP 2017. The ENTSOG model works on a top-down approach when countries are used as the basic blocks interlinked by cross-border capacity. Applicable capacity is the sum of technical capacity at interconnection points between two neighbouring countries and the application of the “lesser-of-rule” to the values of the capacity at both sides of the border for each interconnection point (IP). Storage facilities, national gas pro- duction, and LNG terminals enter the model within the corresponding country and not according to their territorial location. Further, the model assumes that each mod- elled country represents a single entry/exit zone. Therefore, the consideration of internal interconnections is limited. The European approach does not consider potential internal bottlenecks, gas quality issues, and the adaptation of national infrastructure to disruption scenarios. As stated in the TYNDP 2017, the assessment is carried out from a European perspective, under the assumption of perfect market functioning. This ensures a focus on conclusions where solving the identified gap cannot be managed by market or regulatory rules and would presumably require in- frastructure development with cross-border significance. Regarding the planned infrastructure projects, only the full years of a project’s operation are considered in the assessment. This means that the first full year of operation used in the assessment is the first full calendar year following the expect- ed commissioning date (the expected capacity increment). All projects related to the CEE region are listed in Chapter 2 – Infrastructure Projects in the CEE Region. For more details concerning a particular infrastructure project, please see the CEE GRIP Annex A – Infrastructure Projects.

Central Eastern Europe GRIP 2017 |

31