Economic Report 2017

4.1 Oil and Gas M ar ke t s

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Oil Prices and Market Trends Oil m ar ke t s cont inue t o b e ch ar act e r ise d b y unce r t aint y in glob al sup p ly and p r ice v olat ilit y . D at e d Br e nt av e r age d Ψϱ1͘ϲ Ɖer ďarrel ;ďďlͿ oǀer the Ĩirst sidž months oĨ this year, comƉared ǁith Ψϯϵ͘ϴͬďďl oǀer the same Ɖeriod last year͘ The Ɖrice Ĩell ďacŬ ďeloǁ Ψϰϱͬďďl in :une, reƉresenting a seǀenͲmonth loǁ against the ďacŬdroƉ oĨ rising gloďal suƉƉly, ďut it has recoǀered slightly since͘ T h e se p r ice fluct uat ions ar e all t h e m or e m ar ke d w h e n conside r e d against a p e r iod of h igh p r ice and low v olat ilit y at t h e st ar t of t h is de cade . T h e av e r age dat e d Br e nt p r ice consist e nt ly t r ade d w it h in t h e r e lat iv e ly t igh t r ange of ΨϵϱͲ12ϱͬďďl oǀer a threeͲyear Ɖeriod ďetǁeen Ƌuarter one 2011 and Ƌuarter three 201ϰ, ďeĨore Ɖrices Ĩell to Ψϲϯͬďďl ďy the end oĨ 201ϰ͘ There ǁas a slight increase in Ɖrice oǀer the Ĩirst halĨ oĨ 201ϱ ďeĨore another decrease saǁ the aǀerage Ɖrice droƉ to a trough oĨ Ψϯ0͘7ϱͬďďl in :anuary 201ϲ, the loǁest since 200ϯ͘ The Ɖrogressiǀe r e cov e r y t h e r e aft e r h as b e e n w e lcom e b ut q ue st ion m ar ks r e m ain ov e r long- t e r m p r ice e x p e ct at ions and inv e st or s ar e incr e asingly of t h e v ie w t h at oil p r ice s w ill b e st r uct ur ally low e r ov e r t h e long t e r m w it h m uch gr e at e r v olat ilit y t h an se e n in t h e r e ce nt p ast .

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5 6 7 8

Figure 10: Dated Brent Price

പ

14 0

12 0

100 )lbb/ $ ( ecirP lanimo N tner B deta D

8 0

6 0

4 0

9

2 0

10

0

2 010

2 011

2 012

2 013

2 014

2 015

2 016

2 017

Source: Argus Media

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