VCC Magazine Winter 2018

Moneyball: AWinning and Frugal Campaign

By Shelby Lee Ethington

The general assumption regarding campaign finances is that the more money a candidate spends the more votes they will receive. However, the historic election of Delegate Dawn Adams in House district 68 defies these norms. Spending only $151,727, nearly $345,000 less than her incumbent opponent, Delegate Adam’s campaign translates to roughly $7.68 per vote. In a very close race, Delegate Adams received 50.37% of the votes. In addition, 1,896 more people in the

so prevalent that a quick google search on why money matters in campaigns garners article after article proclaiming the power of the dollar. These articles claim there is no way to escape the relationship between a campaign’s finances and its success. Yet, Delegate Adams did. In the movie Moneyball , the general manager of the Oakland A’s must work to make a winning baseball team on a tight budget. The team must learn to outsmart the competition. Their approach is analytical, and evidence based. It’s purely speculative to consider the reasons why the Delegate from the 68th district came out on top without outspending her opponent, but it is certain that whatever it was struck a chord with those she represents and that they have entrusted her to work towards a brighter future for them. Whether it be her ideology as a “sensible liberal,” which she called herself in a questionnaire from Blue Virginia or the hope she brings for a better tomorrow, she outsmarted the competition at a fraction of the price. In the 68th district’s House of Delegates Race it was not money that elected Dr. Adams, but her voters. Shelby Lee Ethington is a junior at Randolph-Macon College. She is a double-major in English and Communications Studies and the student editor for this edition of the magazine.

voting precinct voted for the House of Delegates’ seat than voted for the Gubernatorial. While Delegate Adams spent under $8 a vote, now Governor Northam’s Campaign came in at $25.55 per vote received, including those outside of district 68. Delegate Adams had the highest voter turnout of all Democrats running against Republican incumbents and spent the least amount of money among those who won. However, she also had the narrowest win margin. The link between money and campaigns makes sense: money pays for ads, which people watch or read, and this encourages them to vote creating more support at the polls. This connection is

Virginia House of Delegates 2017 General Election Cost of Election – Top 10 Republican Spenders and Voter Turnout Seats Challenged by Democrats – held by Republicans

25,000

$1,400,000

Amount Spent by Candidates Winning the Election

$1,200,000

20,000

$1,000,000

15,000

$800,000

$600,000

10,000

$400,000

5,000

$200,000

Voter Turnout for General Election 2017

0

$0

House District 066

House District 040

House District 068

House District 058

House District 001

House District 081

House District 025

House District 008

House District 054

House District 099

Honing in on the Republican turnout for House Districts where Democrats challenged and lost, except for District 68 included for analysis , this chart shows the voter turnout on both sides as well as the amount spent on the election on both sides. One might think the higher the amount spent on an election, the higher voter turnout; however, this chart does not show any correlation between amount spent and voter turnout.

Key:

Republican Turnout –District with Republican

District 68–Won by Democrat Dr. Dawn M. Adams (is also Hillary 17 District)

Democrat Turnout –District with Republican Incumbent

Amount Spent on Election (Republican Candidate) Amount Spent on Election (Democrat Candidate)

Democrat Turnout –Hillary 17 District

V

Chart provided by Maureen Hains with data gathered from vpap.org

V irginia C apitol C onnections , W inter 2018

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