Quantitative Methods 2017

STEP 1: NTCP-model Model performance (how good is the model?)

Calibration Agreement between predicted probabilities and observed outcomes

Discrimination The ability to distinguish between patients who will develop complications from those who do not ?

1,00

10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Hosmer-Lemeshow test: p=0.845

0,80

0,60

0,40

Obsreved

Area Under the Curve: 0.80 (0.75- 0.86)

0,20 Sensitivitity

0% 5%

0,00

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0

Expected

1-specificity