News Scrapbook 1984

San Diego Business Journal (Cir. M. 7,500) C 24 198

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gno ticators came close in 1984

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But everyone missed record surge in homebuilding With this Mory, we lead into the San Du•go Buwwis Juumal'J Year ,n the· interest rates began to fall, their

Max Schetter, head of the Chamber's Economic Research Bureuu, predicted an average sales price ot approximately $131,000 or about five percent over 1983 levels. He was close to the mark with an average of $131 ,500 at year's end. Paul ,uggestcd that he had predicted the median price for a home in San Diego woulcl be approximately $103,800 . $103,200 Wll.!> the actual average for tl1c year. Scheuer predicted conMru tion employ- ment would climb to 33,700 in 1984, up from 28,900 last year. The approximate year-end figures will approach 39,000. The housing indu~try was not the only area where the forecasters fell short of their goals. Scheuer, Paul, and Ftm In- terstate Bank regional economics manag- er Phillip Vincent all conceded that San Diego's, and the nation's, ecqnomy grew con nufKI on pap~ 16 _The locaJ...Manpo,..,er employment office ~1th one of its predictions appeared to be nght on target . La1t year the office polled 11s employers who rndicaled that 33 r- ~nt of them wou!d be adding to their !>:rs di~ 1984. Approxuruuely 33 percem of them td JUSI that. ' Although declining lo reveal what his predictions ror the year were F " . 1 1 B , , 1rs1 n - .ers1a1e . ai,k s regional economics man- ~ger Phi11p Vmcent said he was surprised m the raie of growth of non-farm related employment in the county' which he said was Lil> 7·7 percen1 over last year, second only ~o S~nta Clara Coun1y . l~Diego bankmg pro- gra.m director Dennis Zocco did nor make any predictions. But had he made them h -.aid he would have been wrong on at two counts. .•'First of all in 1984 h I h • • ere, as e sew ere, the computer industry was looking for a maJor advance in software development for microcomputers and w really haven '1 seen that yet Sofiw' e . . . · are com- parues ar~ really stumbling ID that area " ~occo said "The stock mark~• was look- m? for a software company to come our with the product, but nobody has ye1 " Overall , 1984 was a good year for ilie San Diego economy, a significantly bet- ter rear lhan the prognosticators had predicted. •

forecasts went out the window. The Building Industry Association, for example, forecast a lackluster, a1 be~t. outlook for home constructiou for 1984, predicting approximately 20,000 new stan , down approximately 500 from the previous year. But the number of new unib actually soared to 34,000 tlus year. "Interest rates were.11tarting back up at the ume we made our prediction," related BlA president Aaron Kol.Ley. '·r'Tedicting the housing market when you have no idea what th~ interest rates are going to be is a real crapshoot. '· Bank of America economics researcher Duane Paul correctly pn:dicted ti)at interest rates would dechne, but not to the degree that they did. , he a! so unde restirnated the number of 1984 housing permits, predicting 23,600 new units, 111Stead of the 34,000. , 19~( 1984, and B of A forecast H a1; pe The al . rcem. ac1u number is open to debate Th chamber peg th , · e . s e current unemployment rate at 6.2 percent, whereas B ofA's Paul puts the figure cloM!r to 6. 9 percent E . ther way th 1 · I • e emp oymem picture is bet- ter than they thought it would be I Schecter said that manufacturi~g in- c uctmg shipbuilding, cornrnUl\Jcatiofl.!> • and aerospace tnduscries accoumed for 6, 500 of the new Job, m.akmg for a total f 112,600 workers in 1984. But he has .· 0 conceded th d since I a1 ue to such factors as the c ~g of the Van Camp tuna cannery and a strike at National Steel and Shipbuild " be thalt the currrem figures are some~~!; ow the 112,000 level. Schetter also predicted that the retail and ~holesaJe .worlforce would top out a, 1~'iJ:r compared with last year's . ' igure. That number was approx- imately on target. Looking into the government secror he predicted government hiring Would ~- . flat g · . remain ' omg Up Just l ,600jobs to 141 800 over the course of the year, with 500 of th0 M! a1 the federal level " W . . • e <1re roughly on target w1 th tha1 prediction " S h said. • c etter . PREDICTION continued from page 16 ( I I I

Rewew, a comprehensive look at the peopl and evenb thai made 1984 a lumultuow. one for local busin~s. for II look back, lurn lo pag 8-JJ, and 14-IS.

DEC 2

By Thor Kamb n Bibermaq ,

Progn wcators the San Diego Chamber of Commerce, Bank of America, F~te Bank, and others general- ly undereMunated the growth in San Diego's economy m 1984, but were real- ly surprised by the surge in the housing market. Even the Bulleting l,ndu try A sociation was wrong when II predicted that high in- tere:.t rwes wowd return and put a damper on lhc San Diego hou.!>ing market. When for fast.er than they thought it would i,, 1984. "Overall, everything did better than we had thought," Scbctter revealed. "Nooe of us qu.it.c expected the economic surge we bad here." One figure that was slightly worse than Scheuer had forecast was San Diego's in- flation rate, which he predicted would in fact double IO 5.5 percent in 1984.5.8 per- cent is the actual figure, but even that is 1 full percentage pomt better than 1982 m- tlation levels here. Scbctter forecast that San Diego's gross regional product (GRP) would be at aJ>- pco.timately $32.4 billion at the end of the year;, tbe actual figure is about $33.7 billion. "The real sharp intetest rate declines caught everyone by surpnse, ·· added B of A'a Paul. "We knew interest rates would fall, but not quite lhc way they did, and that reflects on the whole economy." Scheuer estimated lhC per capita income for San Dicgans would ·nse 6.7 nercent from an average of $12,150 at the end of 1983, IO $12,800 in 1984, compared 10 the actual $13,600. Paul also underestimated, auggesung that per capita IDCome would IVCl'll&e $12,970 for lhc yC4T. The Copley Praa'a figures, which were compile4 from ltatistica suppbed by the state Board of Califo~ Ocpanment of P~. and the U.S. Department of Commerce, were most optimistic, predic- ting a more accurate level of $13,780 for a per capital income average in 1984. The chamber fonxasled that total la.table sales in lhc county would be up 10.3 per- cent IO $12.9 billion in 1984; that figure inslcad clibmed to $13.2 billion for lhc year according to the chamber, and $13.3 billion according to lhc Bank of America. The chamber indicated that taxable retail sales would be at $9. 5 billion by the end oflhc year, with $9.6 billion as their cur- rem estimated figure for the county. B of A• s Paul said that he n~i:l predicted an average retail sales level Lf $9. 5 billion for the year, and $9.47 billion was the actual level. The Copley srudy, by contrast, was much more optimistic, and predicted a $10.6 billion level for the year. The overall unemployment rate proved to be significantly better than predicted, aided not only by housing but by increas- ed manufacturing and shipbuilding in 1984. Bodi lhc chamber and B of A uadercsrimaied the strcngt.h of the employ- lDCl1' n;mvery. The chamber had est4naieq an unemployment rate of 7 .5 perce!)t in PREDICTION oonl,nued lrom P'IP• I

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P. C. 8 I 888 / A fitting tribute to Miss ·Anne Swanke . 2_47~ 0 ut of th~ worsE _of events, an_eventual good will come. Such 1s certainly the case m the aftermath of the terri- ble death Qf USD student Anne C. Swanke. A senior in the hono~ program, Swa.n:ktfwas brutally murdered Nov. 20. In VIew of Anne's outstanding achievements in the honors cur- riculwn, members of USD's faculty have elected to establish an Anne C. Swanke Award. It will be presented each spring as part of the university's honors program. Perhaps by malting this gesture, the university will be able to perpetuate her name and ensure that the memory of such a fine yo':1Ilg woman will live beyond the years she spent on this earth. It 1s also hoped that, by emphasizing her achievements rather than her demise, the award will serve a positive purpose and not merely mark the occurrence of yet another unspeakable act of brutality. FSI

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La Jolla, CA (San Diego Co.) La Jolla Light (Cir. VJ. 9,293)

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11/ 1 JtU"S . Engaged p C B F.

Karen Schaefer-Cameron Campbell Mr. ai d tv1IT.bert Schaefer

employed a s a preschool teacher. Her fiance graduated from La Jolla High School, the University

of Fountain Valley have an- nounced the engagement of their daughter, Karen Elizabeth

of Colorado and the llniversity Schaefer, to Cameron "Bear" of~ Di~o law school.He is Campbell, the son of Mr. and employed as a law clerk pending Mrs. Leon Campbell of La Jolla. Bar results. The bride-elect attends San The couple will wed June 1 in Diego State Universitv and is La Jolla Congregational Church.

San Diego, CA · (San Diego Co.) San Diego Union (Cir. D. 217,32-4) (Cir. S. 339,788)

a-~~~'~~~,.: stay in their cars until help arrives. The luminescent banner asking pass- ing motorists to call police for aid can be kept in the glove compart- Y' Breakdown victims are advised to

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~:~r}!!,~!,1:~e:~ ba~,~~i~,~~!~,d are requested to call the YMCA to about 1.000. It still has them avail-

passers-by to "Please Call Police" when a motorist has been stranded are available through the Davis YMCA, 8881 Dallas St. in La Mesa, at

able at $4 each.

reserve them. The signs have been popular since the kidnapping death of a University of San Diego student

The reflective banners, with large, bold letters, are designed to prevent dangers from passers-by to people

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r ian out of gas.

1/ a cost of $4 each plus tax.

after he~

ment.

The YWCA also has been selling

Because of an anticipated heavy

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