Fall 2016 issue of Horizons
The CMI is modeled after the Purchasing Managers’ Index and has the advantage of being predictive by dint of the way that credit managers see the world. Purchasing managers are always more interested in the state of their customers’ business 90-120-180 days from now – or whenever they are scheduled to pay. That forward-looking orientation carries into the index and right now the prognosis is good for modest growth the rest of the year. The TranSystems Transportation Activity Index is slipping hard, but most of this seems to be related to a slow shipping season this past summer as retailers tried to decide what the holiday shopping season will really look like. This index looks at all the modes of
transportation – ocean, truck, rail, air and others.
The transportation sector is always something of a harbinger of things to come in the economy as nothing happens without something being moved from one place to another. The index had been trending positively for a while and now has hit a snag. The hope is that it is a temporary one. The overall sense is as positive as it has been in months (almost a year). This is contradicting the gloom and doom from political circles, so it may be wise to pay little attention to the rants and focus on what one’s own business activity is telling you. Right now there appears to be more seeing progress than not.
Dr. Chris Kuehl Managing Director, Armada Corporate Intelligence 816.304.3017
Dr. Chris Kuehl provides forecasts and strategic guidance for a wide variety of corporate clients around the world. Kuehl is the chief economist for several national and international organizations – Fabricators and Manufacturers Association, National Association of Credit Management, Finance, Credit and International Business and the Business Information Industry Association. He is also the economic analyst for several state accounting societies – Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee and Kansas. Prior to starting Armada in 1999 he was a professor of economics and finance for 15 years – teaching in the U.S., Hungary, Russia, Estonia, Singapore and Taiwan. He holds advanced degrees in economics, Soviet studies and East Asian studies. Kuehl is the author of Business Intelligence Briefs and Executive Intelligence Briefs – both publications from Armada.
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