WHY TODAY'S MARKET FEELS A LITTLE TOO MUCH LIKE 1999

2. THE BUFFETT INDICATOR — HOW DETACHED THE MARKET IS This compares: The total value of all stocks to the size of the U.S. economy​ Simple idea: If the market grows way bigger than the economy, it can’t stay there.

Historically: Healthy = under 100%​ Extreme = over 150%​ Dot-com peak: 150% Today: Over 220% This isn’t “a little expensive.” This is uncharted air.

The last time we were even close: 2000 (dot-com bubble) stocks fell 50-80% 2008 (financial crisis): Stocks fell over 50%

Different bubbles. Same gravity.

Buffett: $382B in cash. The largest cash reserve Berkshire Hathaway has ever had. He’s not predicting a crash. He’s pricing one in.

History Lesson: Markets don’t fall from fear. They fall from height.