News Scrapbook 1988

Los Angeles,CA (Los Angeles Co.) Times (San Diego Ed.) (Cir. D. 50,010) (Cir. S. 55,573) OCT 16 1988

S,111 D1e1 o, CA (Sm, Dingo Co ,) S·m D iego Uruon (Ci r. D. 2 17,0891 (Cir. S . 341,840) OCT 15 ,988 8 f.11

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easure on district electio "You don't have to be a genius to figure out that it co ts more to run in front of eight limes as many people," he said. "Our problem is money and politics." federal court here challenging San Diego, National City and Chula Vista's at-large election systems be- cause of that.

Los Angeles.CA (Los Angeles Co.) Times (San Diego Ed.) (Cir . D. 50,010) (Cir. S. 55,573) OCT 16 1988

Nelson said the Hispanic popula- tion is dispersed among several dis- tricts. He maintained that to ensure a district with adequate demograph- ics for election of a Hispanic, the council would have to be expanded to as many as 15 seats, and the Hispanic distncl would have to be specially drawn. Fellmelh said proper ethnic repre- entation would be one advantage of district elections. ''but this is not a racial 1SSue - it 1s a democracy issue." He said, "It is obvious that any group of people who dominate the district are going to be more reflec- tive of the representative they choose (with district elections). That' the way It should be." The debate will be aired on KPBS- TV at 6 p.m. Sunday and repeal~ 11 p.m. on Nov. 2

Nelson, however, termed that a "foolhardy" argument not gr?und~d in fact. Comparisons with maior c1t- 1 · with di trict-only elections show there is htlle effect on reducing the level of campaign spending, elson aid. "'I'be bottom hne ls, no matter how you get elected, money still play the game," elson aid Candidate con- lrlbut1on and pending laws hould be reformed, rather than the election sy tern, he added. ln respon to a question by KPBS- TV moderator Gloria Penner, the two agreed that the election of r:nore mmonlte is not a central 1 ·ue around d1stnct-only balloting. San Diego· population include a ub- tant1al number of Hi pam , yet no H panic is now on the coun 11. T~e Chicano Federation has file suit m

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Los Angeles,CA (Los A nycles Co.) Time (Sa n Diego Ed.) (Cir. D. 5 0,010) (Cir. S . 55,5 73) OCTl

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I' C. I IOI /~low Growth De · te l(eyed i Concerns Props. 11, J Offer No Quj,Fkt'ix to Problems Hy r.totAHD HhltNSTF:IN, 1'1 me~ Stnf/ \\'r iln With I , tli;m £our we kR remaining 1111 ii San D1rgo rcs1

8 Part II/Sunday, Octobef1'6;"1988-J-t---;i*r-----------------

CONFLICT~ Growth,Jobs, Quality ofLife 3t Issue in Props. H,J Debate 4 Jt(° •.,. ', . Co~ldued from P • ce 1 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!~ · -:,,

the Urban Land Institute, which is backed by development money and counts land-use planners and gov- ernment officials among its mem- bers. " . . . I think it's a IlllSJ)laced expectation." Proposition H, placed on the ballot' by the San Diego City Coun- cil as a counter to the citizens mitiat1ve, proposes to cap home buildmg at 7,590 annually for the next three to five years, the num- ber of homes that the San Diego Assn. of Governments estimates will be needed to accommodate expected population growth over the same time. Proposition J, sponsored by Citi- zens for Lunited Growth, would linut residential construction to 7,0CYJ to 9,0CYJ homes in the first year after passage and gradually decrease the number to as few as 4,0CYJ by the fourth year after the vote-if the city fails to meet tough standards for air quality, water supply, traffic congestion, trash disposal capabilities and sewage treatment. The measure would last 22 years, or until all five standards are met Would Slow Job Growth Both measures mclude language protecting some of the city's topog- raphy from construction, but only Proposition J calls for correspond- ing limits on economic growth that would gradually slow the rate at which new Jobs are created. The county Board of Supervisors and Citizens for Lunited Growth have placed similar competing measures, Propositions B and D, on the ballot in an attempt to limit

between now and 1995, Sandag says. 'Tm not sure you need a cap," said Berkeley's Kroll. "I think what you need is a mechanism to deal with the problems that concern the citizens and concern them very nghtly." Will Propositions H and J raise hmne prices and rents? No credible study shows any evidence that the growth initia- tives will mcrease home pnces anywhere near as fast as they are rising now without controls-in the range of 18% to 23%, accordmg to the latest statistics kept by the San Diego Board of Real tors. The Berkeley study predicts a 2.5 % housing price increase countywide and larger increases in the city of San Diego. Economist .John Savacool, who tracks the region's real estate market for The WEFA Group (formerly Wharton Econometrics) of Philadelphia, said that the initiatives could add 3% to 4% more to already inflating price tags. In Davis and Petaluma, two small, Northern California towns that imposed growth curbs in the early 1970s, home prices rose 7% and 8% as a result of the limits, according to Seymour Schwartz, a UC Davis professor of environ"1~n- Please see CONFLICT, Pagt, JW

family homes that are in danger.of being replaced by multifamily" units, and devising a plan for managing the peak- hour traffic congestion on roads and highways. More importantly, it directs the city manager to devise a plan for . buildmg the SI billion worth of roads, parks. fire st.ations and other public facilities that will be need- ed-and a method of paying for them. "The city measure is much more focused on setting up mechanisms to deal with the problems," said Cynthia !troll, a regional economist for the Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, who helped write an analysis of housing cap strategies for the city this year. "It is much more specific in what we need todo." Its critics, however, note that the city plan exempts redevelopment areas and low-income housing, al- lowing the City Council to author- ize as many homes m those catego- ries as possible. Moreover, as Sandag noted, "by themselves, res- idential growth restrictions are in- herently flawed ... very restric- tive and long-term housing limitations would be required to reduce the regwn's population growth" so that it is receiving only its fair share of the state's popula-

tion increase.

Cooling down a t9rrid building pace will allow the city some time to play catch up, Proposition H _ backers say, an effort that includes preserving single-family homes that are in clanger of being replaced by multifamily units.

:Proposition J would couple even )uoi;e restrictive housing lids with curbs on industrial and commercial expansion, creating "a gradual transition to a slower, more stable rate of growth," said Peter Navar- ro, a University of San Diego economist who helped write the plan. Would that work? Though the mitiative 1s not clear on how to slow the pace of Job creation, "I think somewhere beyond five ye~ . . . you would see some kind of an impact on· population growth," said Sandag's Shaffer. But some economists and plan- ners predict that San Diego's popu- lation and rate of job creation will decline substantially without any intervention. The children of the Baby Boom have been largely accommodated. Defense spendmg increases, which fueled much of the region's job growth, are starling to slow. San- dag forecasts a population increase of just 107,0CYJ by 1995 and 313,0CYJ by 2010. Don't Need a Cap More importantly, the number of jobs in the region, which have been expanding by an average of 4.2% annually between 1980 and 1988, will increase by just 2.8% annually

growth in the county's unincorpor- ated areas. Though some of the data JS conflicting, research conducted over the past year provides some help in sorting through the claims made by the ee maJor campaigns on the questions facing voters. Will Propositums H and J slow growth? Between 1980 and 1988, city population mcreased by 183.170 people, nearly 21 %, according to Sandag figures. In some years, population growth approached 4%, the kind of increase associated with overpopulated Third World na- tions. Sandag believes that 60% of those people moved here to take Jobs and 36% were born here. With public facilities in the city's urban core failing to keep pace with that growth, crowdmg soon began to show up on roads, in schools and in parks. housing caps alone will not prevent people from coming to the city to take]ObS. "I would think that Proposition H would not slow population growth in the city of San Diego,"

said Stuart Shaffer, Sandag's depu- ty executive director. "Proposition H makes no attempt to slow down employment growth, and as [San- dag research] shows, most popula- tion growth comes from job growth." Proposition H, rather, would slow the rate of home building from the frenetic levels reached before the city enacted its 8,000-home temporary home-buildmg cap, called the Interun Development Ordinance, late last year. After a recession -era low of 4,012 homes were built in 1982, the city entered a torrential buildmg boom in which 10,323 were built in 1984, 13,188 in 1985, 15,228 in 1986 and 14,019 last year. Time to Catch Up Cooling down that pace will allow the city some time to play catch up, its backers say, an effort that includes preserving single-

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Proposition H, however, is not designed to tackle this problem, for .---------------,=--==-----==----------===--------=----------

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S\ um, will b niversary !}- party. ·n will begin 6:30 p.m., with a bar and cocktails, sung by the Jacksl.

20 J * CONFLICT Growth,Jobs at Issue ConlJu,from Page 8 ing marke.t in the. nation when as many as 60,0CYJ people could lose la! studies who examined the situa- ave_rage mcome 1s compared their jobs under Proposition J be- lton. agamst average monthly mortgage cause it would reduce home build- A new study conducted by real payments. The analysis, by the ing by 75% from its 1986 peak. estate consultant Mountain West Lomas & Nettleton Co., shows that But no neutral analyst agrees for the Board of Supervisors est1- the average San D1egan spends with that assessment. While they mates that If both Propositions D 33.3% or his monthly mcome to agree that the construction indus- and J arc approved, prices could meet those paymen.ts, a rate higher try will be hit the hardest, other rise 27% by 1998-or 2.7% per year than New York City, Boston and studies point only to decreases in more than they would without Los Angeles, the next most expen- the rate of job growth over time. In restrictions. s1ve markets. other words, San Diego will still Anticipation of the initiatives A report by Coldwell Banker experience substantial job growth may be raising prices already. Real Estate Consultation Services, regardless of what happens with ''Thr. rear becomes the reality," one of the few studies to forc~ast local growth control measures. ~aid Russell Valone, president of the effect o~ the growth 1mltat1ves The UC Berkeley study, which MarkcLProfilcs, a market research on rcn~al prices, suggests that rents did not contemplate industrial and 1irm that tracks home prices in would mcrcase twice as fast as they commercial restrictions, forecasts subdivi ions. woulfi under free market condi- that a strict cap of 4,500 homes "If you move into the area and ll?ns and would lead to rents 18% would reduce employment growth you want that new home, or 1f you higher than they would without by just 7,000 jobs compared to free live hrre and you want that new restrictions. . . market conditions by 1995. The homr, and you understand that the Sa~ Diegans for.Reg1?nal Traffic construction industry, which al- growth initiatives arc on the No Solut1ons, the bu1~ders campaign ways endures cyclical fluctuations, vcrnhrr ballot, you may buy now committee, has twisted this stat1s- would suffer the largest cut, but it instrad of wailmg until next year," tic, sendmg_out hu.ndrcds of thou- would bejust3%. Valonr said. ~and~ of mailers with the ,r;n~ssage, Sandag, however, predicts a 2% Harold and Debbie Walk, who Don _t Let Rents Double m bold to 3% increase in unemployment rent a house in Allied Gardens, hcadlme type. A spokesman for the rates with the kinds of home have come to that conclusion and c_ommiltce said lhat ~he informa- building and industrial restrictions arc trying lo buy their first home ~ion will be c_orrected 111 forthcom- that would be imposed under Prop- before Nov. 8. mg d.'rect mail p1.eces. . osition J's most stringent condi- "WC' rxpcct that not only will the Will Propositions JI and J in· lions. The decreased rate of job c:ips rausc prices to rise pretty creau unemployment and harm the creation might instill competition suhstanlially, but Just the anticipa local f'conomy' between people who migrate here lton !of growth controls] is causing Partisans and analysts are most for employment and those who are sellers to demancl even more," said deeply-and _angrily-divided on born here, to the point that "some Harold, who manages foreclosed this issue, which is the cornerstone of them would be forced to leave farm property for hanks. of the campaigns being mounted by the region for economic reasons" Huildcrs note that San Diego is bu1ld.crs and. civ_ic leaders against the Sandag report opined. ' already the least affordable hous- the C(t1zcn 1111t1altves. An analysis by San Diego's Eco- Bu1lders, for example, claim that nomic Development Commission Part II /Sunday, October 6, 1988

door Call 544-0777. ,..;rcy Hospital ~nd M_edical Center. Mim Sally 1s cha1rln~. flext Saturday's "Autumn Leaves Mercy Ball which begins with . champagne and hosted cocktails at 7 p.m. at Sheraton Harbor Island East, with dinner at 8 and music by the Bill Green Orchestra. Reserva- tions are $150, $250 and $500 per person; call 260-7108.. . . San Diego state Umver • 1ty. Netl Morgan columnist and editor of The Tribune. will be the Fourth Es- tate Award recipient at a _gala O 25 at Le M rtdien 1n· Coronado, . with his friend and fellow journaltst, Walter Cronkite as featured speak- er. Proceeds will go to San D.lego State Univers1 y communications programs. Tickets are $200 per person for cocktails and dinner, or $ 350 for a private reception at the San Diego Yacht Club.with Morgan and Cronkite, and cruise to Le Meridian. Call 237,0765. . . University of San Diego Aux1h• ary. 'Opulent Upt1ons'"from Nordstrom will be offered Oct. 26 in the Mission Ballroom_. Town and Country Hotel, the fashion lunch- eon beginning with a social hour at 11 a.m. The USO financial _aid pro- gram will be beneficiary. Tickets are $35 or $50 per person; call 481-2545. . San Diego Alzheimer'• A • sOCIB· tion. Gata dinner Oct. 29 wl_ll fea- ture magician Stan Gershwin, plus celebrity impersonations of Cher, Groucho Marx, Don Johnson, Elvis, Marilyn Monroe and Mae West. UCSD Chancellor Richard Atkinson will be honored at the event at_ 7 p.m. at the Sheraton Grand. Tick- ets are $75 per person; call 746 9372 • La Jolla YMCA. "A Small Dance for a Big Cause" on Nov. 4 will . benefit the Firehouse Teen/Semor Center. It will begin at 6:30 p.m. with cocktails, dinner and dancing to The Ravells. Tickets are $125; call 453-3483.

predicts that under Proposition J's curbs on industrial and commercial development, the number or unem- ployed San Diegans would rise from 48,0CYJ now to 90,000 by 2000. Navarro and Carson assert that would happen anyway as the popu- lation expands. Challenged Thesis The EDC's prediction of sus- tairied, high levels of unemploy- ment, was challenged by groups from Citizens for Limited Growth lo Ron Barbieri, managing director of the real estate consulting firm Markel ' West, who studied. the propositions for the county. / Carson and Navarro say that Proposition J would prevent eco- nomic dislocation by slowing eco- nomic growlb gradually through the imposition of new fees to discourage new indu ~trial and commercial development. But others see various forms of economic harm if the caps are imposed. Markel West predicts that the imposition of both Propositions D and J would reduce the amount of property tax revenue to the county by nearly $56 million over the amount that would be raised with- out growth controls by 1998. Kroll says that Proposition J could not discourage new business- es from relocating here without also curtailing the expansion of existing businesses. "If they put on measures that were really successful in slowing down employment growth, they would also be successful in hurting the firms that are already there," she said.

guests will move ac. ,,., J:Iarbor Drive to a big tent on the County Administration grounds That tent will be transparent so the_Star,. lighted for the evening, will be m view and remain the focus of the party. There will be dinner catered by the French Goui:net, ho ttd bars and music for dancmg to Bill Gr n:. nd. This is a maior ev nt for the .mu- seum, now in its 4 th year. Chair- women are Katherme Black and Laurie Blackington. Guests will be limited to 400. Reservations are $150 or $250 per person; call 234-9153. SPINOFFS women's Auxiliary of the San Diego Master Chorale. A cham- pagne brunch and designer sportswear show by Saks Fifth Av- enue will begin at 10:30 a.m. Oct. 17 in the La Jolla store. Reserva- tions are $15; call 274-6317. _ Crime Stopper • • Cocktail attire plus sneakers will be worn by. guests attending the "Run Crime Out of Town·• gala at 6:30 p.m. Thursday at the San Diego Mar- riott. As well as cocktails, dinner and dancing to Ron Rubin's Or• chestra there will be a best sneak- ers co~petition Tickets are $75; call 233-4800. Children's Home Society a nd Junior Theatre. "Jukebox Friday Night" on Friday will raise money for these two organizations. The rock and roll party will feature the music of the Catillacs and Party sounds and entertainment by Sea world's Urban Heat singers and dancers and an exhibition by th~ World Freestyle Frisbee Champi- ons Tickets are $10 in advance, $5

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