Policy & Practice February 2015

cyclical, and therefore have become convinced that the job losses from the “Great Recession” will eventually return. Many, myself included, believe that we are in the midst of a funda- mental restructuring of the economy, and that the one-two punches of the subprime mortgage and financial crises of 2007–2009, (characterized as the main drivers of the recession) were unfortunately more coincidental than material. Just as economic impacts are unevenly distributed, so are the popu- lations they affect. The United States is undergoing the most radical popu- lation and demographic shifts ever. Ethnic and racial diversity promises to upend traditional majorities. The rapid gains of women in education and the workforce are impacting both gender roles and family dynamics. Perhaps least appreciated, though, is the impact of aging. America is experiencing an unprec- edented expansion of our senior population as Baby Boomers join those older than 65. From now until 2030, every day, 10,000 Americans will turn 65 years old. By 2050, the U.S. Census Bureau has predicted that the population older than 65 will more than double. In addition to a dramatic increase in this group, the expansion of people older than 85 will grow even larger, from about 2 percent of the population currently, to more than 4.5 percent by 2050. If any of the crises of the recent past were to recur, such as major pension defaults, or another global financial meltdown, how many of these people would place further demands on systems designed for smaller numbers of senior citizens needing assistance? These seniors (The Silent and Baby Boomer Generations) have a unique set of concerns. In the main, they have experienced all or the vast majority of their active working life, they have the most property and wealth pro- portionally, and can expect to receive federal entitlement benefits. They are politically and demographically more homogeneous, less trusting of govern- ment, and more critical of spending on social services. They will, most likely, continue to work and access programs the way that they always have. The

Here is a sketch of the current situation in the context of the human services operating environment, with an emphasis on trends that beg impor- tant questions for considering possible futures and creating visions for trans- formation. This is not a comprehensive portrait, but rather a thumbnail to spur thinking, while asking occasional ques- tions meant to spur personal reflection or active discussion about what may be over different horizons. Over the last half-century, human civilization has undergone the most sig- nificant levels of technological advance, accelerated change, and global inter- connectedness in its history. These factors have presented us with a level of complexity in human affairs that threatens to overwhelm our systems for understanding and leading change. The effects on the public human service operating environment are pronounced and should be a cause for concern. The changes brought on by ever- accelerating technological advance and increased globalization have dis- rupted our economy; pointing out the shortcomings in our broken political, legal, and educational systems; and shifted the nature of our daily lives from (seemingly) simple, to compli- cated, and now to highly complex. The Post-Industrial Era gave us the first mass robotics, when automation displaced many factory workers. This led to fewer blue collar jobs in manufac- turing, but increases for employment in computers and information technology. This increased the need for greater education. The subsequent Information

Age expanded opportunities in developing and building information technology systems and infrastructure. This period is ending, with exponential growth in computer processing power and data storage that give us the ability to automate white-collar activity. The losses in the knowledge work sector have now reached levels comparable to past manufacturing job losses. Unfortunately, our education system supports an economy that is evolving at a far faster speed than adjustments to business decisions and government policy. After losses from automation, the manufacturing and agriculture sectors continued to take employment hits due to job off-shoring. Then the service sector began to experience similar conditions. For example, call centers moved to other countries, or became digital exchanges. Unemployment started to increase. This time, tech- nology is increasing efficiency, and not yet providing new sectors of expanded employment. Even sectors long thought to be safe havens from automation, such as the professions, are now reeling from changes brought on by robotics, software, artificial intelligence (AI), web and app-based products and services, and algorithm-driven pro- gramming and analytics. Basic legal and accounting services are now provided by web sites and software packages, instead of people. More and more often, programs, not novice attorneys, search case law. Robotic systems are increasingly involved in surgeries, and computers like IBM’s famous Watson are becoming far more involved in diagnostics. If the profes- sions are not immune to major impacts or even outright replacement, what can lower-income workers expect, where skills are more easily modeled and imitated? Will the new crisis in suburban poverty (which has rocked the once-stable middle class) raise awareness that social support systems, developed a half century ago to help the urban poor, need updating? The timing of so much of this employment impact has led to confu- sion about both cause and effects. So many people believe that most of our systems (economic and business) are

Anthony Scerbo is a Strategic Foresight Consultant and Futurist based inWashington, D.C. He focuses primarily on addressing complex global challenges through research,

consultation, and helping institutions and individuals develop foresight capabilities. He can be reached at anthonyscerbodc@ gmail.com.

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