GNYADA February 2016 NY Auto Outlook

Data Thru January 2016

NEWYORK AUTOOUTLOOK tm a monthly report on vehicle sales in metro new york

JANUARY VEHICLE SALES REPORT

metro area new retail car and light truck registrations

January Estimate*

December Actual

Annual Total

2016 2015 % chg.

2015 2014 % chg.

2015 2014 % chg.

Industry Total

35,762 36,492 -2.0% 52,276 49,498 5.6% 588,044 553,884 6.2%

Cars

14,280 15,952 -10.5% 21,671 23,091 -6.1% 255,153 263,526 -3.2% 21,482 20,540 4.6% 30,605 26,407 15.9% 332,891 290,358 14.6%

This table shows new retail light vehicle (car and light truck) registrations in the twelve-county New York metro area. Figures exclude fleet transactions. * January 2016 figures were estimated by Auto Outlook.

Light Trucks

Detroit Three

10,304 10,246 0.6% 13,380 12,235 9.4% 159,173 143,961 10.6% 5,508 5,702 -3.4% 10,502 11,421 -8.0% 97,924 98,858 -0.9% 17,781 18,357 -3.1% 25,583 23,385 9.4% 293,559 274,382 7.0% 2,169 2,187 -0.8% 2,811 2,457 14.4% 37,388 36,683 1.9%

European Japanese

Korean

Data Source: IHS Automotive

NOTE: The late January snow storm put a bit of a damper on the metro area new vehicle market, but sales were still strong. Total sales should still exceed 34,000 units, which is very respectable for the first month of the year. Registrations are predicted to increase slightly for all of this year versus 2015 and have a chance to exceed 600,000 units.

1. Metro area market increased 6.2% from 2014 to 2015, stronger than the 5.1% improvement in the nation. 2. Light truck market share was an estimated 61.1% in January, up 3.8 points versus a year earlier . 3. Land Rover , Volvo , Chevrolet , and Infiniti registrations were up by more than 19% for all of 2015. 4. Metro area used vehicle market increased by 1.7% last year. 5. Metro area new vehicle market declined an estimated 2% in January of 2016 versus a year earlier. The small drop in January followed a 5.6% improvement in December of 2015.

The Greater NewYork Automobile Dealers Association (GNYADA) represents more than 400 franchised new car dealerships in downstate New York with combined annual sales totaling over $33 billion. GNYADAmembers are responsible for more than 65,000 jobs in the area and collect over $1.8 billion in state and local taxes annually.

RECAP OF DECEMBER RESULTS

10%

December ‘15 new retail light vehicle registrations in the metro area were up 5.6% compared to a year earlier. Auto Outlook had projected a 9% increase. Auto Outlook is predicting that sales in January of this year declined 2% versus a year earlier. We will report on the accuracy of that projection in the March, 2016 release. Percent Change in Area Registrations December 2015 vs. December 2014

9.0%

8%

6%

5.6%

4%

2%

PG: 2 new york auto outlook : NEW VEHICLE MARKET February 2016 Issue 2007 Registrations 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 New vehicle registrations 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Apr Mar Feb Jan

0%

Auto Outlook projected % change

Actual % change

RECENT RESULTS IN NEWVEHICLE MARKET

Monthly New Retail Light Vehicle Sales 2014 and 2015*

Percent Change in Area and U.S. New Vehicle Sales

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%

Metro NY U.S.

2016 2015

The metro area market increased 6.2% during 2015, higher than in the nation.

6.2

5.6

5.1

2.5

Monthly registrations declined by an estimated 2% in January 2016.

-2% -1%

-0.4

-2.0

% Change Jan '16* vs Jan '15

% Change Dec '15 vs Dec '14

% Change 2015 vs 2014

Jul

Oct

Jun

Dec

Sep

Nov

Aug

May

* Figures for January 2016 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Data Source: IHS Automotive

Data Source: IHS Automotive

NEWVEHICLE MARKET FORECAST

New York Metro Area Annual New Retail Registrations History and Forecast

Metro area registrations are predicted to approach 600,000 units this year.

595,000

588,044

553,884

531,573

501,070

450,850

449,172

452,076

432,032

384,763

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016 Forecast

Data Source: IHS Automotive

NEWVEHICLE SEGMENTS

PG: 3 NEW VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook February 2016 Issue

Detroit Three Market Share Moves Higher in First Month of 2016

Market Share - January 2016*

Change in share: January 2016* vs. January 2015

Korean 6.1%

Detroit Three

0.6

European 15.4%

Japanese

0.1

Japanese 49.7%

Korean

-0.2

Detroit Three 28.8%

European

-0.5

0.2

0.4

0.0

-0.4

-0.2

*Figures for December 2015 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Data Source: IHS Automotive. Data Source: IHS Automotive. Data Source: IHS Automotive. *Figures for January 2016 were estimated by Auto Outlook.

Metro Area SUV Market Share Exceeds 50% in early 2016

Market Share - January 2016*

Change in share: January 2016* vs. January 2015

Pickups/Vans 9.5%

SUVs

3.3

Pickups/Vans

0.5

Passenger Cars 39.9%

Passenger Cars

-3.8

SUVs 50.6%

2.0

1.0

3.0

0.0

-1.0

-2.0

-3.0

-4.0

Hybrid Vehicle Market Share Declined in 2015

Market Share - 2015

Change in share: 2015 vs. 2014

Diesel 1.0%

Electric 0.2%

Hybrid 2.1%

Gasoline

0.9

Electric

0.1

Diesel

-0.3

Gasoline 96.7%

Hybrid

-0.7

0.2

0.6

0.8

0.0

-0.6

-0.2

NEWVEHICLE BRANDS

BRAND REGISTRATIONS REPORT Metro Area New Retail Car and Light Truck Registrations

January Estimate*

Three Month Period (Nov ‘15 – Jan ‘16*)

AnnualTotal

2016

2015 % change

Current

Yr Earlier

% change

2015

2014 % change

PG: 4 new york auto outlook : NEW VEHICLE MARKET February 2016 Issue TOTAL Cars Light Trucks Domestic Brands European Brands Japanese Brands Korean Brands Acura Audi BMW Buick Cadillac Chevrolet Chrysler Dodge FIAT Ford GMC Honda Hyundai Infiniti Jaguar Jeep Kia Land Rover Lexus Lincoln Mazda Mercedes MINI Mitsubishi Nissan Porsche Ram Subaru Tesla Toyota Volkswagen Volvo Other

35,762 36,492 -2.0% 133,456 127,852 4.4% 588,044 553,884 6.2%

14,280 15,952

-10.5%

54,178 58,516

-7.4%

255,153 263,526 -3.2%

21,482 20,540

4.6%

79,278 69,336

14.3%

332,891 290,358 14.6%

10,304 10,246

0.6%

36,617 33,160

10.4%

159,173 143,961 10.6%

5,508

5,702

-3.4%

23,556 25,657

-8.2%

97,924 98,858 -0.9%

17,781 18,357

-3.1%

65,557 61,890

5.9%

293,559 274,382 7.0%

2,169

2,187

-0.8%

7,726

7,145

8.1%

37,388 36,683 1.9%

811 654

963 647

-15.8% 1.1% -6.2% 42.8% -9.6% -5.0% -23.3% 17.3% -22.9%

3,058 3,047 6,100 1,454 6,527 1,738 1,761 880

3,301 2,985 7,036 1,255 5,701 2,334 1,668 725

-7.4% 2.1%

14,891 12,924 15.2% 12,802 11,892 7.7% 23,925 25,623 -6.6%

1,394

1,486

-13.3% 21.4% 15.9% 14.5% -25.5% -16.4% 13.2% -0.6% 3.8% 5.2% 11.8% -16.4% 16.6% 15.2% 41.1% -0.7% 16.1% 11.3% -17.1% -22.2% 21.6% 15.1% 5.6%

257 347

180 384

3,491 5,672

3,683 -5.2% 6,600 -14.1%

1,639

1,725

29,410 24,330 20.9%

559 590

729 503

8,275 7,986 1,150

8,204

0.9%

8,641 -7.6% 1,332 -13.7%

54

70

204

244

2,430

2,549

-4.7% 1.9% -1.4% -0.4%

8,727 2,651

7,709 2,666

38,604 34,830 10.8% 10,855 9,451 14.9% 79,028 78,239 1.0% 26,060 25,747 1.2% 12,733 10,623 19.9%

804

789

4,719 1,488

4,787 1,494

17,218 16,583

5,306 2,968

5,043 2,655

610

703

-13.2%

62

60

3.3%

179

214

764

879

-13.1%

2,905

2,573

12.9% -1.6%

9,667 2,421 1,422 5,651 1,193 2,305 7,173

8,289 2,102 1,008 5,689 1,028 2,071 8,656

41,737 36,268 15.1% 11,328 10,936 3.6%

682 347

693 330

5.2%

5,453

3,698 47.5%

1,215

1,364

-10.9%

22,696 19,735 15.0%

330 607

310 635

6.5% -4.4% 0.2% -2.0% -5.7% 1.4% 8.2% 3.5% -0.8%

4,565

4,141 10.2%

10,634 10,437 1.9% 28,604 31,272 -8.5%

1,824

1,821

99

101 158

385 653

495 537

2,224 2,898

2,205

0.9%

149

2,430 19.3%

3,602

3,551

13,344 11,593

59,467 53,693 10.8%

171 478

158 462

633

602

5.1%

2,935 7,691

2,674 7,214

9.8% 6.6%

1,853 6,081

1,628 5,678

13.8%

1,824

1,839

7.1%

25,812 21,905 17.8%

26

31

-16.1%

207

124

66.9% 2.8% -9.7% 35.1%

809

501

61.5%

4,123

4,355

-5.3%

14,152 13,773

65,358 64,369 1.5% 13,699 13,819 -0.9%

582 242 138

692 220 130

-15.9% 10.0%

2,815 1,209

3,116

895 449

4,436 2,052

3,443 28.8% 2,146 -4.4%

6.2%

474

5.6%

Top ten ranked brands are shaded.

Data Source: IHS Automotive *December ’15 figures are estimated.

PG: 5 NEW VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook February 2016 Issue

NEWVEHICLE BRANDS

Percent Change in Metro Area Registrations January 2016* vs. Year Earlier Top 20 Selling Brands

Metro Area and U.S. New Vehicle Market Share January 2016* Top 20 Selling Brands

13.2

Dodge

17.3

Honda

U.S. Area

9.3

11.5

12.9

Jeep

Toyota

12.9

10.1

1.9

GMC

Nissan

8.0

8.1

1.4

Nissan

Jeep

5.0

6.8

1.1

Audi

Ford

12.6

5.1

0.2

Mercedes

Subaru

Honda’s metro area market share was 13.2% versus 9.3% in the Nation.

4.0

5.1

-0.4

Hyundai

Mercedes

2.3

Dodge and Jeep had the largest estimated increases in January.

4.6

-0.8

Subaru

Chevrolet

10.2

4.2

-1.4

Honda

Hyundai

4.0

3.9

-1.6

6.8

Kia

BMW

2.3

3.4

Mazda

-4.4

Lexus

2.2

2.3

-4.7

Ford

Acura

1.1

2.2

-5.0

Chevrolet

GMC

3.5

1.9

-5.3

Toyota

Kia

3.7

1.8

-6.2

BMW

Audi

1.1

1.7 1.9

-10.9

Lexus

Mazda

1.7

-13.2

In niti

In niti

0.7

1.6

-15.8

Volkswagen

Acura

1.6

1.6

-15.9

Dodge

Volkswagen

3.1

1.6

Chrysler

Chrysler

-23.3

1.1

0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15%

-25% -2%0 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Market Share

Change in new retail light vehicle registrations

Data Source: IHS Automotive

Data Source: IHS Automotive

Figures for January ‘16 were estimated by Auto Outlook.

USED VEHICLE REPORT

METRO AREA USED CAR AND LIGHT TRUCK REGISTRATIONS December October‘15 – December‘15 AnnualTotals 2015 2014 % change Current Previous % change 2015 2014 % change

43,443 52,581 -17.4% 143,460 151,024 -5.0% 666,939 655,824 1.7 %

INDUSTRY TOTAL

Cars

23,721 29,078 -18.4% 77,761 82,381 -5.6% 367,675 364,564 0.9%

PG: 6 new york auto outlook : NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET February 2016 Issue 0% Annual % change in new vehicle registrations Annual % change in used vehicle registrations Light Trucks Detroit Three European Japanese Korean 2-year-old vehicles 3-year-old vehicles 4-year-old vehicles 5-year-old vehicles

19,722 23,503 -16.1% 65,699 68,643 -4.3% 299,264 291,260 2.7%

15,145 18,912 -19.9% 50,438 55,502 -9.1% 234,513 239,053 -1.9%

6,924 8,160 -15.1% 22,198 23,144 -4.1% 102,840 100,408 2.4%

19,389 23,194 -16.4% 64,228 65,631 -2.1% 299,740 287,526 4.2%

1,985 2,315 -14.3% 6,596 6,747 -2.2% 29,846 28,837 3.5%

1-year-old vehicles or newer

4,769 5,875 -18.8% 14,316 16,244 -11.9% 48,617 48,562 0.1%

4,351 5,025 -13.4% 13,545 13,721 -1.3% 52,229 47,611 9.7%

3,034 3,960 -23.4% 10,831 12,366 -12.4% 64,596 65,944 -2.0%

1,885 2,041 -7.6% 6,004 5,948 0.9% 32,599 29,328 11.2%

1,646 1,759 -6.4% 5,348 5,161 3.6% 25,194 22,423 12.4%

6-year-old vehicles or older

27,758 33,921 -18.2% 93,416 97,584 -4.3% 443,704 441,956 0.4%

Data Source: IHS Automotive

Annual Comparison

Used up 1.7%

New up 6.2%

7%

8%

2%

3% 4%

1%

6%

5%

Data Source: IHS Automotive

COUNTY MARKETS (NEW & USED VEHICLES)

PG: 7 NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook February 2016 Issue

COUNTY NEW AND USED MARKETS New Retail Registrations

Used Retail Registrations

Oct ‘15 Oct ‘14 Through Through % Dec ’15 Dec ‘14 Change

Oct ’15 Oct ‘14 Through Through % Dec ’15 Dec ‘14 Change

%

%

2015

2014 Change

2015

2014 change

Bronx

5,585 4,820 16% 23,714 13,815 12,300 12% 55,828

20,542 15% 49,138 14%

9,695 10,156 -5% 47,856 13,804 14,649 -6% 65,536

45,829 63,673 32,071

4% 3% 0% 1% 4% 1% 3% 2% 1%

Brooklyn Dutchess

4,078 3,729

9% 17,237

16,140 26,945

7% 0%

6,927 5,268

7,395 -6% 32,033 5,894 -11% 26,610

Manhattan

6,131 6,276 -2% 26,948

26,858 -1%

Nassau Orange Putnam Queens Rockland

29,159 26,733 9% 114,962 109,141 5%

19,054 19,877 -4% 86,165

85,657 40,293

5,109 4,906 1,820 1,791

4% 22,142

21,013

5% 3%

9,203 2,284

9,197

0% 42,056

2%

7,636

7,423

2,435 -6% 10,007

9,872

19,326 17,313 12% 78,126

70,410 11%

20,719 22,241 -7% 97,086

94,718 21,880 25,069

5,564 5,256

6% 22,742

21,754

5%

4,968 5,491

5,128 -3% 22,279 5,706 -4% 25,202

Staten Island

9,881 8,442 17% 38,845

35,250 10%

Suffolk

25,796 25,231 2% 108,857 107,847 1%

31,357 32,907 -5% 145,077 14,690 15,439 -5% 67,032

143,911 1%

Westchester

17,374 16,919 3% 71,007

68,281

4%

65,993

2%

TOTALS

143,638 133,716 7% 588,044 553,884 6% 143,460 151,024 -5% 666,939 655,824 2%

Data Source: IHS Automotive

Top three are shaded.

new vehicle market share in metro area counties Top 30 Selling Brands in Area, 2015

Brand

Bronx Brooklyn Dutchess Manhattan Nassau Orange Putnam Queens Rockland Staten Island Suffolk Westchester

Honda Toyota Nissan

17.9 17.0 12.9

16.2 14.9 11.6

14.4

9.8

11.9

12.1 12.6

13.9

15.9 15.6 13.5

12.6 13.0 10.6

12.7

11.7

14.5

9.4 7.6 6.4 8.6 8.5 2.4 4.2 2.6 0.9 2.8 2.2 1.2 0.4 2.8 2.8 3.3 0.9 1.5 2.5 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1

10.3

8.8

8.8 6.5 8.4 7.5 6.4 3.2 4.3 2.1 1.7 1.8 2.6 1.6 0.6 1.7 3.7 2.0 1.4 1.9 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1

8.1

9.9 9.6 8.5 8.3 7.9 3.7 5.4 3.9 3.2 2.4 1.9 3.0 1.9 1.5 2.3 1.9 2.2 1.0 1.6 2.5 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1

8.5 6.9 7.7 5.7 4.2 6.1 2.9 7.7 5.4 4.2 4.4 2.3 3.2 2.0 1.5 1.9 1.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.2

5.0 5.8 4.6 2.6 2.5 3.8 8.4 4.9 2.3 2.5 5.4 1.5 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.2 0.4 1.5 3.8 0.5 1.7 0.4 2.2 0.3 1.1 0.9

10.3

9.3 7.1

12.1

Jeep Ford

5.9 5.9 4.6 3.0 5.1 2.9 2.3 2.3 3.3 1.6 0.8 1.2 2.8 1.1 1.2 1.9 1.9 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.1 1.2 0.3 0.1

5.1 5.4 2.7 4.2 3.6 2.4 4.0 6.6 2.3 2.2 1.7 3.6 1.6 1.0 1.1 3.0 1.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.2

7.8 5.8 4.8 6.0 4.4 3.3 4.9 4.3 2.7 2.3 2.7 2.6 1.6 2.7 2.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.1 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1

6.1 4.0 3.8 4.8 4.5 3.2 3.6 4.2 2.5 2.1 1.5 2.4 1.5 1.1 1.6 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2

5.7 8.1 3.8 4.0 5.2 7.0 3.3 3.3 2.2 1.7 2.0 1.7 2.4 1.7 1.7 2.6 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1

7.4 9.8 4.4 4.2 5.7 2.3 3.0 5.2 1.3 2.4 1.4 3.8 3.0 1.9 1.8 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.6 2.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2

10.5

Chevrolet Mercedes Hyundai

7.0 1.9 5.3 6.8 2.6 1.2 1.7 1.6 0.9 0.7 2.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.7 0.7 0.3 1.0 0.4 1.0 0.2 1.2 0.3 0.1

10.6

Subaru

10.2

13.7

BMW Lexus Acura

Volkswagen

Audi

Infiniti

Kia

GMC

Mazda

Chrysler

Dodge

Ram

Cadillac

Land Rover

Lincoln

Volvo Buick

Porsche

Mitsubishi

MINI FIAT

Data Source: IHS Automotive

The top three counties for each brand are shaded.

MODELS (NEW & USED VEHICLES)

New Vehicles Top 25 New Models - 2015

Used Vehicles Top 25 Used Models - 2015

BMW 3-Series Toyota Corolla Honda CRV Nissan Rogue Honda Civic Nissan Altima Toyota Camry Honda Accord

Toyota Camry Toyota RAV4 Nissan Altima Jeep Grand Cherokee Honda Civic Nissan Rogue Honda CRV Honda Accord

9,570

22,456

8,898

21,130

8,627

20,524

6,650

15,653 15,760 15,623

5,992

5,869

new york auto outlook : NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET February 2016 Issue PG: 8 0 Ford Fusion Mercedes C-Class Ram Nissan Sentra Ford Explorer Hyundai Elantra Chevrolet Equinox Toyota Corolla Ford Escape Toyota Highlander JeepWrangler Toyota Sienna Lexus RX Subaru Forester Jeep Cherokee Honda Pilot Hyundai Sonata

Accord was also at the top of used vehicle sales chart.

4,988

14,945

4,359 4,350 4,335

14,334

Mercedes GLE/M-Class In niti G Toyota Highlander Ford E-Series Hyundai Elantra JeepWrangler BMW 5-Series Nissan Maxima Mercedes E-Class Volkswagen Jetta Nissan Sentra Toyota Sienna Mercedes C-Class Toyota RAV4 Honda Pilot Hyundai Sonata Jeep Grand Cherokee

9,584 9,512

9,394

4,091

4,036

8,387

3,845

8,015

Accord, CR-V, and Rogue were the

3,304 3,210

7,848 7,822 7,468

top-sellers in the new vehicle market in 2015.

3,144 3,090 3,062

7,452 7,404 7,396

3,057

2,839

7,173 7,131

2,834 2,740 2,623

6,994 6,637 6,585 6,522

2,610 2,606

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000 10,000

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

Used registrations (vehicles six years old or newer)

New retail light vehicle registrations

Data Source: IHS Automotive

Data Source: IHS Automotive

HOW DATA IS COMPILED All data represents retail vehicle registrations in the twelve-county New York metro area and excludes fleet and wholesale transactions. January 2016 figures were estimated by Auto Outlook based on recent trends in the metro area market, seasonal factors, and results in the national market. Please keep in mind that monthly registration figures can occasionally be subject to fluctuations, resulting in over- or underestimation of actual results. This usually occurs due to processing delays by governmental agencies. For this reason, the year-to-date figures will typically be more reflective of market results. For year-to-date figures, the most recent month (January) is estimated and previous months are actual.

NEW YORK AUTO OUTLOOK Prepared by: Auto Outlook, Inc. PO Box 390 Exton, PA 19341 Editor: Jeffrey A. Foltz NewYork Auto Outlook is published by the Greater NewYork Automobile Dealers Association and is provided free of charge to all members as an added benefit of Association membership. Copyright GNYADA, February 2016

Any material quoted must be attributed to Auto Outlook and GNYADA, and must also include the statement “Data Source: IHS Automotive.” New and Used Vehicle Auto Outlook is produced by Auto Outlook Inc. for the Greater New York Automobile Dealers Association. Statements contained or incorporated by reference in this publication that are not historical facts, including those that GNYADA or Auto Outlook, Inc. believes, anticipates, intends or foresees, are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on the current expectations and beliefs of GNYADA and/or Auto Outlook concerning future developments and their potential effects on the automobile industry. Consequently, Auto Outlook and GNYADA are not responsible for management decisions based on the content of New and Used Vehicle Auto Outlook. Data provided by: IHS Automotive GNYADA: 718.746.5900 • info@gnyada.com • 18-10 Whitestone Expressway, Whitestone, NY 11357 Media inquiries: Sams Crispe Communications • 212.560.9494 • questions@samscrispe.com