Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

The Triangle Region in brief

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Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

Bright prospects for residential development Since 2014, the housing market has been characterised by price hikes, climbing rent levels and shorter re-sale/re-let periods for both single-family houses and flats. On a regional level, the population exceeds a quarter of a million, with forecasts of sustained population growth for years to come, driven mainly by an increase in the old age group. In this age group, you tend to keep your single-family home, implying that demand for large units may be undershot. The region faces a decline in the young population, which may drive down rent levels in small rental units. Given the anticipated population growth, attractive opportunities are believed to arise for investors and developers, especially if they focus on single-family and terraced housing as well as well- located large flats. Strong commercial centres Although the retail sector is generally challenged by e-commerce, both Vejle and Kolding are doing well; both being established commercial centres with large catchment areas and low retail vacancy rates, etc. In Kolding, we believe part of the explanation is town-centre densification strengthening the customer base. Because of e-commerce, however, we believe that rent levels will stagnate or even edge down slightly in the region, but investors’ yield requirements will remain constant.

Gode muligheder for boligprojekter Boligmarkedet har siden 2014 været præget af stigende priser, øgede lejeniveauer og faldende liggetider/hurtigere udlejning af såvel parcelhuse som lejligheder. Området har samlet over en kvart million indbyggere, og antallet ventes ifølge prognoserne at stige de kommende år, hovedsageligt trukket af flere ældre. Den gruppe bliver ofte boende i parcelhuset, og derfor kan efterspørgslen på større boliger blive undervurderet. Samtidig har Trekantområdet udsigt til færre unge, og det kan udløse et pres på lejeniveauerne for mindre lejeboliger. Med et forventet stigende indbyggertal ser vi gode muligheder for investorer og projektudviklere – særligt hvis de har fokus på parcel- og rækkehuse samt velbeliggende større lejligheder. Stærke handelsbyer Trods detailhandlens generelle udfordringer med nethandel klarer både Vejle og Kolding sig godt; de har begge opbygget positioner som handelsbyer med stort opland og har fx lav butikstomgang. I Kolding er en del af forklaringen i vores øjne, at fortætningen af byens centrum har styrket kundegrundlaget. Qua nethandlen vurderer vi dog, at lejeniveauet i Trekantområdet vil stagnere eller falde lidt, mens investorerne har uændrede krav til afkast.

 RUNE VØLUND , rune.volund@colliers.com

Demographic forecast for The Triangle Region New 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000

0-17 years

70y 50-69y 30-49y 18-29y 0-7y

18-29 years

30-49 years

50-69 years

Note: The Triangle Region officially encompasses seven municipalities, viz. Billund, Fredericia, Haderslev, Kolding, Middelfart, Vejen and Vejle, but this report only covers the three most important ones.

20

22 21

25 24 23

26

27

28

29

+70 years

Source: Statistics Denmark