Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

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Continued low vacancy At start-Q4 2019, the office vacancy rate was 6.6% in Copenhagen proper, implying that vacancy rates have remained stable around the 6% mark for a 24-month period. This reflects an exceptionally strong and solid letting market, even if the vacancy rate exceeds the pre-crisis historical low. We foresee continued low vacancy rates in 2020 – against the backdrop of high employment levels and a pronounced supply and demand imbalance due to limited supply. Vacancy data imply that it should be possible to find office premises. However, office vacancies are almost exclusively confined to old, functionally obsolete properties predating the millennium. Office space requirements then were very different from those today: Premises typically have poor daylight inflow, low ceiling height and a fair amount of unutilised space (e.g. long office corridors) – and properties located outside the Copenhagen CBD (Central Business District) may not have easy access to public transport. Even fairly new and well-maintained properties built in the 2000s may fail to meet today’s requirements, e.g. in terms of indoor climate, a relevant focal point due to the downscaling trend in workspace areas. It will often be a costly and unprofitable affair to upgrade old office properties to match – or even come close to matching – today’s tenant demands. Up-to-date and well-located office properties on the other hand are almost free of vacancies. We expect this trend to continue.

Fortsat lav tomgang I begyndelsen af 4. kvartal af 2019 var tomgangen i København By 6,6%, og dermed har tomgangen ligget stabilt omkring 6% gennem 24 måneder. Det afspejler et meget stærkt og solidt lejemarked, selv om tomgangen ligger over de historisk lave niveauer før finanskrisen. Vi forudser fortsat lav tomgang i 2020 – med baggrund i den høje beskæftigelse og ubalancen mellem stor efterspørgsel og begrænset udbud. Tallene signalerer, at det burde været muligt at finde kontorlokaler. Men tomgangen eksisterer næsten udelukkende i ældre, utidssvarende ejendomme, opført før årtusindskiftet. Dengang var kravene til kontorlokaler meget anderledes end i dag, så lokalerne er typisk mørke med lav loftshøjde og en del spildplads (fx lange fordelingsgange) – og ejendomme uden for den centrale del af København (CBD) ligger ikke nødvendigvis tæt på offentlig transport. Selv nyere og velholdte ejendomme fra 00’erne kan have svært ved at leve op til dagens krav om fx indeklima, som er kommet i fokus på grund af udviklingen mod færre kvadratmeter til hver arbejdsplads. Det vil ofte være dyrt og urentabelt at istandsætte ældre kontorejendomme, så de lever op til – eller bare nærmer sig – nutidens krav fra lejere. Til gengæld har moderne og velbeliggende kontorejendomme nærmest ingen tomgang, og vores forventninger er, at det vil fortsætte.

+13,552 new employees from Q3 2018 to Q3 2019 increase demand for office space

Information and communication +2,326

Public admin., etc. +2,411

Other business services +4,165

Note: FTE growth, Capital Region of Denmark, Q3 2018 to Q3 2019 1 Other includes the categories Real estate, Construction, Manufacturing, Agriculture and other unspecified business activities. Source: Statistics Denmark

Trade and transport +2,170

Other 1 +1,364

Finance and insurance +1,116