Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

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Investors setting sails for safe haven Retail properties outside Copenhagen are typically less liquid and have a narrower investor appeal: They trade less often and at higher yield requirements, reflecting higher operational risk, including vacancy risk. In 2019, we witnessed a strong “flight- to-quality” trend, i.e. a shift in favour of well-located properties with financially strong tenants, rendering it difficult to sell retail properties in secondary locations. In our estimation, the distinction between properties in prime and secondary locations will become more pronounced. In terms of secondary properties this means higher risk premiums and reduced LTVs, in itself dampening transaction activity. We also expect to see upward pressure on yield requirements, widening the yield spread for prime and secondary properties. Typically owned by large, domestic property companies and pension funds, shopping centres are rarely offered for sale in the market. And the few that have been offered have only attracted limited interest regardless of substantial value-add or development potential, albeit at the expense of substantial risk. For instance, one of the biggest privately-owned property companies in Denmark, Dades, discarded plans to divest a share of its shopping centre portfolio, worth some DKK 4bn, because it was difficult to find obvious partners, even though the portfolio includes well- established shopping centres like Waterfront in Hellerup, Ro’s Torv in Roskilde and Spinderiet in Valby.

Investorerne søger mod sikker havn Detailejendomme uden for København er kendetegnede ved at være mindre likvide med færre mulige investorer. De skifter typisk ikke så ofte ejer og handles til højere afkastkrav, som afspejler en højere driftsrisiko fx med større tomgang. I 2019 oplevede vi en stærk ”flugt mod kvalitet”, altså en bevægelse mod velbeliggende ejendomme med solide lejere, og det er blevet sværere at sælge detailejendomme med sekundære placeringer. Vi vurderer, at forskellene mellem primært og sekundært beliggende ejendomme vil vokse. Det vil for de sekundære ejendomme betyde stigende risikopræmier og reducerede lånemuligheder, hvilket i sig selv vil lægge en dæmper på omfanget af handler. Der vil også være opadgående pres på afkastkravet, og dermed bliver forskellene større for afkast på primære og sekundære ejendomme. Indkøbscentre er typisk ejet af store, hjemlige ejendomsselskaber og pensionskasser, og derfor kommer de sjældent på markedet. De få centre, som har været udbudt, har kun tiltrukket begrænset interesse trods betydelige value add- eller udviklingsmuligheder, men samtidig en betydelig risiko. Blandt andet har Dades, et af Danmarks største privatejede ejendomsselskaber, droppet at afhænde dele af sin portefølje af indkøbscentre på ca. 4 mia. kr. Det var svært at finde oplagte partnere, selv om porteføljen omfatter kendte centre som Waterfront i Hellerup, Ro’s Torv i Roskilde og Spinderiet i Valby.

 MORTEN PETERSEN , morten.petersen@colliers.com

International investor appetite remains strong in the retail segment

Core investments continue to push out value-add and opportunistic investments

78% Core 22% Value-add

Note: Retail transaction volume by investment type. Retail transaction volume, Greater Copenhagen. Source: Colliers

Note: Retail transaction volume by investor origins. Retail transaction volume, Greater Copenhagen. Source: Colliers

Foreign

Domestic

47%

53%