Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

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Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

Speculative newbuilding In 2019, we saw several speculative construction starts, with investors developing logistics facilities without pre-let agreements in place. Investors were unafraid to do so, reassured by low vacancy rates and hidden demand from businesses putting relocation plans on hold after having searched in vain for contemporary premises. Foreign investors like Verdion and MG Real Estate have been highly active in this respect, the latter developing MG PARC Greve Distributions Center. We believe that speculative construction activity will continue as a shift in consumer patterns and higher consumer requirements drive up the demand for up-to-date logistics facilities. A contributing factor is that businesses are not prepared to sign a lease agreement just to wait 12-24 months to have a building erected but prefer to rent premises from an investor or developer engaged in the speculative building of premises already completed or under construction. For instance, car import business Interdan opted for new facilities at Greve Distributions Center, citing the possibility of immediate take-over as an important factor in the decision-making process. This also implies that the market will be less predominated by built-to-suit or tailored facilities. There are too many disadvantages if you stay in outdated and/or cramped premises while new premises are altered or constructed as opposed to quickly moving into a well-functioning logistics centre.

Nybyggeri uden lejere I 2019 så vi flere eksempler på spekulativt byggeri, hvor investorer opførte logistikejendomme uden på forhånd at have lejere. Det turde investorerne på baggrund af den lave tomgang og den skjulte efterspørgsel, hvor virksomheder gerne ville flytte, men er blevet boende, fordi det ikke var muligt at finde moderne lokaler. Udenlandske investorer som Verdion og MG Real Estate har været særdeles aktive her – sidstnævnte med at opføre MG PARC Greve Distributions Center. Vi forventer, at der fortsat vil være spekulativt byggeri, fordi de ændrede forbrugsmønstre og skærpede krav fra forbrugerne øger behovet for moderne logistikejendomme. En medvirkende årsag er, at virksomheder ikke vil underskrive en lejekontrakt og derefter vente ét-to år med at få bygget en ejendom, men i stedet foretrækker at leje lokaler hos en investor eller projektudvikler bag spekulativt byggeri, som allerede står klart eller er ved at blive opført. Et eksempel er, at bilimportøren Interdan valgte nye faciliteter i Greve Distributions Center med muligheden for at flytte ind med det samme som vigtig del af beslutningsgrundlaget. Det betyder samtidig, at markedet vil blive mindre præget af built-to-suit- eller skræddersyede ejendomme. Der er for store ulemper ved at blive i utidssvarende og/eller små lokaler, mens en ny ejendom bliver tilpasset eller bygget, frem for hurtigt at kunne flytte ind i et fungerende logistikcenter.

OFFICE HOTEL RETAIL INDUSTRIAL REGIONS RESIDENTIAL

Domestic predominance becoming less pronounced in the industrial/logistics segment

Value-add investments dominate the industrial/logistics market

14% Core 79% Value-add 7% User

Domestic

Foreign

Note: Industrial/logistics transaction volume by investment type. Industrial/logistics transaction volume, Greater Copenhagen. Source: Colliers

Note: Industrial/logistics transaction volume by investor origins. Industrial/logistics transaction volume, Greater Copenhagen. Source: Colliers

52%

48%