ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

3.3 Supply potentials

For the purpose of this Report the supply assumptions define the potential supply from a given source. The word “potential” implies that these gas supplies cannot be considered as forecasts of future flows. In order to capture the uncertainty in the development of supply, minimum and maximum potentials have been defined for each source. The development of such potentials is based on publicly accessible literature, reports, daily news and mem- bers’ and stakeholders’ feedback. These scenarios cover both: \\ Supplies from outside EU coming from Russia, Norway, Algeria, Libya, Azerbaijan, and LNG \\ Supplies from inside EU coming from conventional national production, non-fossil sources like biomethane and unconventional fossil sources like shale gas In the TYNDP analysis the assumed minimum and maximum potentials for each source are used as lower and upper limits for the imports from this given source. In this respect upstream investments in neighbouring countries will be a key factor in driving new production dedicated to Europe. It will support not only new explora- tion but also new technical solutions enhancing recovery of existing fields. This will enable the production of the most challenging reserves and their export to Europe by pipeline. To see this potential materialise Europe needs to give long term and robust signal on the role of gas. Otherwise there is a risk of reduction of surrounding gas reserves or their production and export to other destinations in the form of LNG. It is important to highlight that all potential gas supplies are regarded as pipeline bounded gas supplies except LNG. LNG is treated as a single source gathering the potential supply of all producing countries. For those exporting gas, both as pipeline- bounded gas and LNG, the potential supplies have been treated separately in order to avoid double counting. Each supply potential is developed independently and no specific likelihood is defined. The first assessment year in the TYNDP is 2017. Taking into account stakeholder feedback, it was determined that using supply potentials based on recently observed data would be more realistic. As a result, the supply potentials for the year 2017 are not based on the same literature/studies like the supply sources for the other time snapshots (2020, 2025, 2030, 2035). Based on the expertise developed by ENTSOG for the seasonal outlooks, the maxi- mum supply potential is built by using the average of the two maximums of ENTSOG Summer and Winter Supply Outlooks 2015/16 for each source. The minimum supply potential is developed by using the minimum yearly supply ob- served in the calendar years 2009–2015 for each source (2011 is disregarded for Libya).

SUPPLY POTENTIALS 2017 (GWh/d)

MINIMUM

MAXIMUM

RUSSIA

3,503

4,748

NORWAY

2,810

3,320

ALGERIA

674

1,007

LIBYA

165

235

LNG

1,061

2,101

Table 3.2: Supply potentials 2017

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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report