ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

Besides the gas exports via pipeline, Russia is also an exporter of LNG. The Sakha- lin liquefaction plant was commissioned in 2009 and the majority of the LNG was exported to Japan and South Korea. In 2015 Russia exported around 15bcm of liq- uefied natural gas. However, it is still a small amount in comparison to the EU pipe- line-bounded gas exports. The Yamal LNG plant could increase the LNG exports of Russia to Europe. In addition, Russia is extending its interest to far Eastern markets. In 2014, Russia signed a supply contract with China to deliver 38bcma of natural gas as of 2018 via the 2,200km long Power of Siberia pipeline that runs from the Chayandinskoye field in Yakutia to the city of Blagoveshchensk on the Russian-Chinese border. Supply potentials The supply potentials for Russia reflect continuity from the previous TYNDPs taking into account the unchanged information about the resources. Exports in the form of LNG are part of the LNG analysis featured later in this report. \\ Maximum Russian pipe gas potential: This potential was directly taken from the estimated “Gas exports to EU” published by the Institute of Energy Strategy (Gromov 2011). These figures show a shift in the exports to Asia-Pacific. The figures between 2030 and 2037 are extrapolated from the 2020–2030 trend. \\ Minimum Russian pipe gas potential: This potential was determined based on the following publication: “Potential impact of new Asian contracts on Russian gas exports in a worst case scenario in Europe” – “Europe 70% ToP”, “The Political and Commercial Dynamics of Russia’s Gas Ex- port Strategy” (Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, James Henderson & Tatiana Mitrova, September 2015). The below graph shows the Minimum and Maximum Russian pipe gas potentials. The graph also highlights the historical range from 2009 to 2015.

200 bcma

TWh/y

2,000

150

1,500

100

1,000

50

500

0

0

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

Maximum

Range

Minimum

Historical supply range (2009 – 2015)

Figure 3.18: Pipeline gas potentials from Russia

PIPELINE GAS POTENTIALS FROM RUSSIA

GWh/d

2017*

2020

2025

2030

2035

2037

MAXIMUM

5,294

5,762

5,869

5,977

6,085

6,128

MINIMUM

3,623

3,623

3,148

2,346

2,346

2,346

* Supply potentials 2017 as shown in table 3.2 are used for the assessment

Table 3.3: Pipeline gas potentials from Russia (GWh/d)

Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report | 109