ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

Supply Potentials

The supply potentials define a possible range of Norwegian gas exports to Europe via pipeline; exports as LNG are part of the LNG analysis featured later in this report. The Norwegian supply potentials are based on data coming from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD)/Ministry of Petroleum and Energy (MPE) and GASSCO. The potential range of Norwegian supply has been estimated as follows: \\ Maximum Norwegian pipeline gas scenario This potential represents the exports from Norway, where the maximum level, fore- seen to be reached in 2019, based on information estimated by GASSCO, is main- tained until 2037. This level of production and exports would require the develop- ment of current discoveries and yet to find gas fields, alongside the existing fields and to develop the required interconnection infrastructure. \\ Minimum Norwegian pipeline gas scenarios This potential takes the lowest of the minimum imports of 2009–2015 (93bcma) and the production sales forecast of resources in existing fields (GASSCO informa- tion), extrapolated between 2035 and 2037.

150 BCM/a

TWh/y

400 600 800 1,000 200 1,400 1,200 1,600

120

90

60

30

0

0

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

Maximum

Range

Minimum

Historical supply range (2009 – 2015)

Figure 3.21: Pipeline gas potentials from Norway

PIPELINE GAS POTENTIALS FROM NORWAY

GWh/d

2017*

2020

2025

2030

2035

2037

MAXIMUM

3,208

3,267

3,267

3,267

3,267

3,267

MINIMUM

2,762

2,762

2,317

1,752

1,322

1,203

* Supply potentials 2017 as shown in table 3.2 are used for the assessment

Table 3.5: Pipeline gas potentials from Norway (GWh/d)

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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report