ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

Supply potentials In order to define its maximum and minimum supply potentials ENTSOG considered different combination of production, national demand trends, also taking into account different shares between LNG and gas via pipeline. Exports as LNG are part of the LNG analysis featured later in this report. \\ Maximum Algerian pipeline gas potential Production future figures were defined applying the trend in production expected by Medpro  1) , to 2014 production level (according to BP Statistical Review 2015   2)  ), while consumption figures were taken directly from Medpro forecasts scenarios. From the total potential export, defined as the difference between production and internal consumption, the potential export only to the EU was derived by deducting the share of export to be allocated to other African Countries (according to BP Sta- tistical Review 2015 historical figures and WEO 2015 New Policy Scenario evolution of African demand forecast) and of the LNG share (based on historical average 2010–2014). \\ Minimum Algerian pipeline gas potential Production future figures were defined applying the trend in production and de- mand increase expected by the WEO 2015 NPS to the BP statistical figures. From the total potential export, defined as the difference between production and inland consumption, the potential export only to EU was then derived deducting the share of export to be allocated to other African Countries (according to BP Statistical Review 2015 and WEO 2015 NPS figures and of LNG (based on the historical maximum for the period 2010–2014).

50 bcma

TWh/y

500

40

400

30

300

20

200

10

100

0

0

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

Maximum

Range

Minimum

Historical supply range (2009 – 2015)

Figure 3.27: Pipeline gas potentials from Algeria

PIPELINE GAS POTENTIALS FROM ALGERIA

GWh/d

2017*

2020

2025

2030

2035

2037

MAXIMUM

1,083

1,204

1,379

1,508

1,486

1,476

MINIMUM

646

633

556

501

413

339

* Supply potentials 2017 as shown in table 3.2 are used for the assessment

Table 3.7: Pipeline gas potentials from Algeria (GWh/d)

 1) Outlook for Oil and Gas in Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries, October 2012  2) BP Statistical Review 2016 was not available when supply potentials were elaborated

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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report