ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

Supply Scenarios

Based on different assumptions on production and consumption ENTSOG consid- ers a maximum and a minimum potential for Libyan export.

\\ Maximum Libyan pipeline gas scenario Based on the technical export capacity of GreenStream pipeline (354GWh/d), the maximum potential assumes a 95% load factor of the pipeline (336GWh/d). \\ Minimum Libyan pipeline gas scenario This potential is based on Mott MacDonald’s report  1) . According to its low case, the production potential ranges from 16bcm (176TWh) in 2015 to 20bcm (220TWh) in 2030. For the period 2031–2037 the production figures have been then extra­ polated. Total exports have been derived applying the minimum export/production ratio used in the last TYNDP edition (34% according to the historical OPEC data). Then pipeline exports have been estimated at 97% of overall Libyan gas exports.

12 bcma

TWh/y

120

9

90

6

60

3

30

0

0

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

Maximum

Range

Minimum

Historical supply range (2009 – 2013)

Figure 3.29: Pipeline gas potentials from Libya

PIPELINE GAS POTENTIALS FROM LIBYA

GWh/d

2017*

2020

2025

2030

2035

2037

MAXIMUM

336

336

336

336

336

336

MINIMUM

167

173

184

195

206

211

* Supply potentials 2017 as shown in table 5.2 are used for the assessment

Table 3.8: Pipeline gas potentials from Libya (GWh/d)

 1) Supplying the EU Natural Gas Market November 2010, Mott MacDonald

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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report