ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

Supply Potentials Shah Deniz phase 1 production has already started and will remain stable and limited to regional markets. ENTSOG considers as potential Azeri supply for EU gas coming from phase 2 starting as of 2019. \\ Maximum Azeri pipeline gas potential This potential considers the 10bcma (110TWh/y) for the EU market as it was done in TYNDP 2015. The ramp-up phase gradually increases the gas imports from 2019 to 2022. \\ Minimum Azeri pipeline gas potentials With the final decision of the aforementioned transit route, the likelihood of receiv- ing some gas can now be considered high. Hence, this minimum potential has been set at 80% of the maximum one.

12 BCM/a

TWh/y

120

9

90

6

60

3

30

0

0

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

Maximum

Range

Minimum

Figure 3.31: Pipeline gas potentials from Azerbaijan

PIPELINE GAS POTENTIALS FROM AZERBAIJAN

GWh/d

2017*

2020

2025

2030

2035

2037

MAXIMUM

0

119

297

297

297

297

MINIMUM

0

95

238

238

238

238

* Supply potentials 2017 as shown in table 3.2 are used for the assessment

Table 3.9: Pipeline gas potentials from Azerbaijan (GWh/d)

120 |

Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report