ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

3.3.3.3 Shale gas

In recent years, potential EU shale gas production has become a more visible topic. Driven by the shale gas boom in the US, the tension between Ukraine and Russia and the growing dependency of the EU on gas imports, a significant number of European stakeholders believe that this indigenous source should be high on the European energy agenda. Shale gas has led to controversial debates regarding its environmental impacts. In comparison to the US, the European geological condi- tions are quite different. The first appraisal wells have been drilled in Poland and the UK, however the exploration phase is still at an initial stage and therefore it is likely that commercial flows from EU shale gas will not be delivered within the next few years. Reserves As the exploration of shale gas is currently not as mature as for conventional gas, estimations of reserves are quite diverse. EIA estimates European technically recov- erable shale gas resources at around 13,000bcm (143,000TWh) whereas Pöyry’s estimates are more conservative with figures ranging from 8,000 to 11,000 bcm (88,000 – 121,000TWh) in their “Some Shale Gas” and “Boom Shale Gas” scenar- ios. These figures can be compared with the annual European gas demand ( 418 bcm  / 4,595 TWh in 2015 ) and US recoverable resources ( around

14,000 bcm

DK NL DE SE ES UK FR PL

12,000

10,000

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6,000

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0

EIA – EU 28

Pöyry – EU 28 Shale Gas Boom

Pöyry – EU 28 Some Shale Gas

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

bcm

Figure 3.49: Technically recoverable shale gas resources in the EU (own depiction based on Pöyry 2013 “Macroeconomic Effects of European Shale Gas Production”)

Figure 3.50: Technically recoverable shale gas in EU (source Pöyry “Some Shale Gas” scenario)

17,600bcm  1)  ). The term “technically recoverable” refers to the volume of shale gas that theoretically could be extracted with current technologies  2) taking into account shale mineralogy, reservoir properties and geological complexities. Most of this technically recoverable shale gas can be found in France, Germany, UK, Poland and Sweden. The EU is far from having a clear legal framework regarding fracking. Due to politi- cal, historical and geographical differences European Member States have very different positions on shale gas. Some countries have taken measures preventing exploration and production whereas appraisal wells have been drilled in the UK and Poland without bridging big results for the moment. In parallel other Member States have been working on establishing a national consensus on a legislative framework covering fracking and the associated environmental impacts.

 1) EIA 2015: https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/  2) Pöyry, Macroeconomics Effects of European Shale Gas Production, page 15, November 2013

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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report