ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

Shale gas supply potential To determine potential shale gas production, ENTSOG has taken into consideration a range of data including information from Pöyry and TSO estimates. Due to the uncertainty around the development of shale gas on EU territory, plus the information received from TSOs of the complete lack of shale gas production expected, the below potential is not taken into account in the assessment and therefore does not relate to any of the TYNDP scenarios (EU Green Revolution/Green Evolution, Blue Transition and Slow Progression). \\ Some shale gas potential Given the uncertainty surrounding EU shale gas production, this potential is based on the conservative “Some Shale Gas” estimate included within Pöyry’s 2013 report. It includes the application of environmental and planning constraints (limiting the number of possible drilling areas because of environmental and planning concerns) as well as constraints regarding practical (drilling rig trained staff availability) and financial (cost of production exceeding possible future market prices) issues. Due to the high uncertainty ENTSOG assumes the start of this potential should be delayed for a period of at least 5 years.

60 bcma

TWh/y

600

40

400

20

200

0

0

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

Figure 3.51: Potential for shale gas

POTENTIAL FOR SHALE GAS (GWh/d)

GWh/d

2017 2020

2025

2030

2035

2037

SOME SHALE GAS

0

0

149

579

1,262

1,515

Table 3.13: Potential for shale gas (GWh/d)

It should be noted that TSOs estimates of shale gas production, collected by ENTSOG in 2016, provided no data on shale gas production in any country due to the high uncertainty based on the weak results of shale gas extraction in Europe, difficult geological formations, the lack of available trained staff and technologies, and also public and governmental opposition due to the risks associated to the extraction technics.

Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report | 135