ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

limiting monopolistic supply behaviour by mitigating price spread effects between different import routes. Also, the monetisation for the different supply mixes has been carried out on a country level accompanying the European perspective. Additionally, modelling the high demand cases based on the storage level stemming from the average year simulation leads to improved results. The continuous cooper- ation with GIE helped to improve the modelling of storages and LNG terminals. This includes the modelling of gas storages by the definition of injection and withdrawal curves and LNG terminals during high demand situations (see Annex F). Four demand scenarios have been developed for this edition of TYNDP: Slow Progression, Blue Transition, Green Evolution and EU Green Revolution. All these scenarios are fully-fletched in terms of related data and have been analysed in the Demand chapter. Yet as the Slow Progression demand situation falls within the range of the other scenarios, the TYNDP assessment will cover all but this scenario. The three assessed scenarios, Blue Transition, Green Evolution and EU Green Revolution, all achieve the European energy and climate 2030 targets while taking different paths in terms of the overall gas demand, from a continued decrease to a limited rebound. The assessment in the TYNDP 2017 is done for the years 2017, 2020, 2025, 2030 and 2035 for the following dimensions: \\ Demand Scenarios: Blue Transition, Green Evolution and EU Green Revolution (see chapter 2: Demand)  1) \\ Infrastructure Level: Low, Advanced, High   2) and 2 nd PCI list (see chapter 4: Infrastructure) For all combinations of these scenarios and infrastructure levels, specific assessments analyse both the whole year and high demand situations, as the gas infrastructure needs to be fit for those circumstances: \\ The whole year refers to an average climatic year and consists of an average summer (AS)  3) and an average winter (AW)   4) . For this period, analysis consists of: – – The Supply Configurations: Balanced, minimisation and maximisation of each extra-EU supply source in the supply mix and the import price spread configuration (see Annex F). This allows conclusions towards different feasi- ble supply mixes and flow situations, monetisation effects on EU level and the alignment of marginal prices. In line with what has been proposed to stakeholders when elaborating the TYNDP concept, the analysis focuses on a limited number of meaningful configurations.

– – The Supply and price dependence per country   5) – – The Price diversification potentials per country   6)

 1) The total gas demand (overall for the residential, commercial, industrial, transport and power sectors) is a direct input into the modelling.  2) The results for the High infrastructure level are shown exclusively in Annex E, in line with reasons highlighted in the Infrastructure chapter  3) 7 month storage injection period April to October, 214 days  4) 5 month storage withdrawal period November to March, 151 days  5) Supply Source Price Dependence (SSPDe), Cooperative Supply Source Dependence (CSSD) and Uncooperative Supply Source Dependence (USSD) indicators  6) Supply Source Price Diversification (SSPDi) indicator

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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report