ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report
6.2 Supply Adequacy Outlook
The Supply Adequacy Outlook is based on the supply potentials and the demand scenarios (see Supply and Demand chapters). For 2017, the results reflect the “tomorrow as today” approach applied for the definition of the supply potentials.
The supply demand adequacy including exports to extra-EU countries, is achieva- ble for all demand scenarios, as illustrated in Figure 6.1.
700 bcma
TWh/y
7,000
600
6,000
500
5,000
400
4,000
300
3,000
200
2,000
100
1,000
0
0
2017
2020
2025
2030
2035
2037
Maximum Supply Potential
National Production (NP)
Non-FID National Production
Minimum Supply Potential
NP-Biomenthane
Demand Green Evolution
Demand EU Green Revolution
Blue Transition + Exports
Demand Blue Transition
Figure 6.1: Supply Adequacy Outlook
The Supply Adequacy Outlook takes into account the yearly demand of the EU-28 countries together with the relatively small demand of the other countries considered in the assessment that are supplied via the EU 1) . It also considers the yearly exports from EU to extra-EU countries 2) , which on Figure 6.1 have been represented by the dotted line on top of the EU Blue Transition scenario demand. The minimum/maximum supply potentials consist of the indigenous production and the minimum/maximum supply potentials of each extra-EU supply sources (Russia, Norway, Algeria, Libya, LNG and Azerbaijan). In addition to this the Cypriot produc- tion is made accessible through a project with a non-FID less-advanced status, therefore it is only considered in the High infrastructure level. Biomethane produc- tion is an additional inner-EU supply source 3) . The fact that demand, including on the short-term, exceeds the minimum supply potential indicates that supply demand adequacy requires that not all sources are at their lowest level at the same time.
1) Bosnia and Herzegovina, FYROM, Serbia and Switzerland 2) Russia (Kaliningrad area and St. Petersburg region), Ukraine and Turkey 3) The volume of the biomethane production potential depends on the scenario, as detailed in the Supply Chapter. The supply adequacy outlook shows the highest potential
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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report
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