ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

6.3.2.2 Remaining Flexibility and Disrupted Rate under high demand situations (normal situation)

This section analyses the results under an otherwise normal situation in the sense that all supply routes are available (no route disruption). The results indicate that the European gas infrastructure is able to cope with high demand situations. In the long term the demand increase in Croatia, foreseen in all demand scenarios and primarily related to power generation, may require addition- al infrastructure reinforcement to cope with its high demand situations. The related demand information is available in Annex C2. If the Romanian indigenous production would indeed decrease as reported by 2035, the country may also have difficulty in covering its high demand situations. It should be noted these situations occur in the later simulated years. It is also worth noting that the current firm infrastructure capacity between Germa- ny and Denmark is just sufficient for Denmark and Sweden to face their high demand situations in the Blue Transition scenario (Remaining Flexibility is close to 0%). Additionally, in 2030 in the Blue Transition scenario, the demand increase in Poland, in particular related to gas displacing higher-carbon coal generation in the power sector, contributes to a lower remaining flexibility.

Blue Transition 2020 Low

Blue Transition 2030 Low

EU Green Revolution 2030 Low

EU Green Revolution 2020 Low

20%

20%

100%

Remaining Flexibility

Disrupted Demand

100%

50%

0%

0%

Figure 6.3: Disrupted Rate and Remaining Flexibility, EU Green Revolution and Blue Transition, DC, Low infrastructure level

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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report