ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

6.3.2.3 Disrupted Demand and Remaining Flexibility under Route Disruption

This section investigates the effect of a supply route disruption during a high demand situation. Only the additional effect compared to the result from the situation without the route disruptions are shown. Results are shown for the European Green Revolu- tion and the Blue Transition scenarios. The gas infrastructure is resilient to most of the route disruptions cases investigated. The Ukraine transit disruption leads to disrupted demand. In some of the scenarios, the Belarus transit disruption also leads to disrupted demand on the long term.

Franpipe, GreenStream, Langeled, MEG, TANAP and Transmed route disruptions

The disruption cases have been modelled for Franpipe, GreenStream, Langeled, MEG, TANAP and Transmed. Results do not show significant differences in terms of remaining flexibility for security of supply needs, compared to the case without route disruption covered in 6.3.2.1. The results as illustrated below are the same for all cases.

2020 Low

20%

20%

100%

Remaining Flexibility

Disrupted Demand

100%

50%

0%

0%

Figure 6.4: Remaining Flexibility for Langeled, Franpipe, Transmed, GreenStream, MEG and TANAP route disruption, Low infrastructure level, all Demand Scenarios and High Demand Situations

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