ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

Belarus transit disruption Under a Belarus transit disruption, in the short-term, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia experience a decreased remaining flexibility. The Lithuanian Klaipėda LNG FSRU is currently in operation. However, from 2025 it is not considered anymore in the low infrastructure level, reflecting the expiration of the FSRU time charter party (leasing agreement) by then  1) , and the fact that the operator has not yet taken a decision about possibly purchasing the FSRU  2) . This leaves the Baltic States without access to LNG. A Belarus transit disruption would therefore cause Lithuania to curtail more than 50% of its demand, and Latvia to face limited demand curtailment. In addition, Poland and Estonia face a risk of demand disruption from 2025 onwards in the Blue Transition scenario. This indicates an investment need in Poland and the Baltic States to increase the resilience towards a Belarus transit disruption, though this need may depend on the scenario.

BY disruption Blue Transition 2030 Low

BY disruption Blue Transition 2020 Low

BY disruption EU Green Revolution 2030 Low

BY disruption EU Green Revolution 2020 Low

20%

20%

100%

Remaining Flexibility

Disrupted Demand

100%

50%

0%

0%

Figure 6.5: Disrupted Rate and Remaining Flexibility under Belarus route disruption, EU Green Revolution and Blue Transition, DC, Low infrastructure level

 1) See Annex D, Sheet “Capacity changes”  2) The Klaip ė da LNG terminal continued operation is considered in the high infrastructure level

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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report