ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

2030 Low

2017 Low

2020 Low

Access to supply sources, Green Evolution, Low infrastructure level, whole year

2

4

5

3

1

Figure 6.12: Access to supply sources, Green Evolution, Low infrastructure level, whole year

20% – 100% Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal and Spain show a low diversification potential. This is also the case in 2017 for Bulgaria, FYROM, Greece and Romania. The situation improves by 2020 thanks to the foreseen commissioning of a number of projects in this area, such as the extension of the Revythoussa LNG terminal in Greece or the Greece-Bulgaria interconnection. The deterioration in the Baltics in 2030 relates, as mentioned earlier in the chapter, to the Klaipėda LNG FSRU not being considered anymore in the low infrastructure level from 2025, reflecting the expiration of the FSRU leasing agreement. The situation for countries accessing LNG (in particular the Iberian Peninsula and Greece) is more diversified than the indicator result since the LNG supply source consists of gas from various countries exporting gas as LNG. For details see the GLE analysis in section 3.3.2 in the supply chapter. However, the results can have an impact on competition and a better access to alternative supply sources would enhance the results for this indicator for Greece, Portugal and Spain. Italy has infrastructure in place allowing the higher diversification degree, which only Slovenia and Croatia can currently benefit from. The number of supply sources decreases from 2020 to 2030 for most of the coun- tries due to the European-wide decrease of the indigenous production, which does not make it over the threshold of 20%. Additionally the diversification potential of the Baltic States decreases post-2025 since the Lithuanian Klaipėda LNG FSRU is not considered anymore in the low infrastructure level after this date, reflecting the expiration of the FSRU leasing agreement. 0% – 20% 20% – 50% 50% – 100% Disruption Demand The supply sources per country can be identified when looking at the country level results for the SSPDi indicator for each supply source shown in Figure 6.12. The col- our of the bar represents the supply source, whereas the height of the bar represents how much this source can positively impact the country supply bill.

Remaining Flexibility

0% – 20%

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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report