ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

Norwegian supply The results for the CSSD indicator for Norwegian supply show a dependence for all of Europe on Norwegian gas only for 2017 (slightly below 15%), linked to the limited sup- ply flexibility of other sources (tomorrow as today approach) for this specific time horizon. On the longer time horizon the availability of Russian gas and LNG mitigates the Europe- an dependence on Norway completely. In the Blue Transition scenario, a slight depend- ence (below 5%) reappears after 2030 for all countries. This is shown in Figure 6.14.

700 bcma

TWh/y

7,000

600

6,000

500

5,000

400

4,000

300

3,000

200

2,000

100

1,000

0

0

2017

2020

2025

2030

2035 2037

National Production + Biomethane Maximum Supply Potential Minimum Supply Potential

Demand EU Green Revolution + Exports Demand Blue Transition + Exports Demand Green Evolution + Exports

Figure 6.14: European level supply and demand adequacy with no supply from Norway

From 2017 onwards this dependence can be shared equally within all of Europe meaning that no infrastructure limitations are identified, as indicated by Figure 6.15. The following figure shows the results for CSSD – Norway at country level for the Green Evolution scenario.

CSSD-NO Green Evolution 2030 Low

CSSD-NO Green Evolution 2020 Low

CSSD-NO Green Evolution 2017 Low

CSSD-NO, Green Evolution, Low infrastructure level, whole year

2%

25%

100%

50%

15%

0%

Figure 6.15: CSSD-NO, Green Evolution, Low infrastructure level, whole year

Remaining Flexibility

Disruption Demand

0% – 20%

20% – 100%

Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report | 201