ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

Supply Figure F.1 compares the supply potentials developed in 2014 for TYNDP 2015 with the actual EU imports. For Russia, Norway, Algeria and Libya those imports have materialised in the range of the potentials as expected in TYNDP 2015. LNG has shown actual imports below expected potentials. National production expectations were part of the data collection completed mid- 2014. The observed levels have varied from the estimated plans. The production cap imposed on the Groningen field in the Netherlands is the main driver for such difference. The Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs originally announced in January 2014 a production cap of 42.5 bcm for 2015. This cap was revised down on a num- ber of occasions between December 2014 and until mid-2015, and was finally set to 30bcm. Actual production in 2015 were reported as 28.1bcm  1) . As part of the TYNDP 2017 process, the supply potentials have been amended. In particular, ENTSOG has developed a new approach to the LNG maximum supply potential, making use of information from the IEA World Energy Outlook. This has led to a downward revision of the maximum potential. During the stakeholder engagement process for TYNDP 2017, the new supply potentials were presented and discussed, resulting in further adjustment of some of the sources. The stake- holder input also resulted in the introduction of a “tomorrow as today” approach for the first year of the assessment, 2017, calculated based on the maximum and min- imum levels observed for every source in the recent years, in line with the approach retained in the Supply Outlooks & Reviews.

TYNDP

2,000 TWh/y

bcm

2015

2017

180

1,800

160

1,600

140

1,400

120

1,200

100

1,000

80

800

60

600

40

400

20

200

0

0

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Tomorrow as today

NP

LNG

DZ

LY

NO

RU

Figure F.1: Actual EU Gas Supply 2009–2015, TYNDP Supply Potentials data

 1) Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs/TNO, Geological Survey of the Netherlands. http://www.nlog.nl/en/groningen-gasfield-0

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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report