ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

Demand In the TYNDP 2015, two demand scenarios labelled Green and Grey were devel- oped using different assumptions regarding the global context and the evolution of both the final gas demand and power generation sectors. The Green scenario consisted of a global context with fuel prices based on the UK Gone Green scenario from the UK Future Energy Scenarios 2014  1) , which included a high CO ² price and a reduction in the linkage between oil and gas prices. Final gas demand was driven by favourable economic conditions, whereas gas for power gen- eration was derived using a methodology based on data from ENTSO-E TYNDP 2014 Vision 3 “Green Transition”. The Grey scenario consisted of a global context with fuel and CO ² prices based on the IEA Current Policies scenario from the World Energy Outlook 2013   2) and with no new political commitments expected regarding the environment. Final gas demand was driven by unfavourable economic conditions, whereas gas for power generation was derived using a methodology based on data from ENTSO-E TYNDP 2014 Vision 1 “Slow Progress”. Figure F.2 shows the progression of EU level actual demand, versus the result of the data collection under the Green and Grey scenarios, which was completed during mid-2014. It is important to note that the actual demand levels shown reflect the actual weather conditions, whereas data collected for the scenarios represents demand under average climatic conditions.

6,000 TWh/y

5,500

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4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

TYNDP 2015 Green

TYNDP 2015 Grey

EU Green Revolution

Blue Transition

Historic

Figure F.2: Actual EU Gas Demand 2000–2016, TYNDP Demand Scenario data

There was a drop of around 11% for gas demand between 2013 and 2014 driven by many factors, such as low coal and CO ² prices pushing gas out of the power generation mix, a continuation of the slow economic situation and a warmer than average year, leading to significant reduction in the need for heating. EU gas demand in 2015 saw a 4% recovery from the previous year to 4,595TWh, which can again be linked to a number of factors with sectoral differences at a coun- try level. TYNDP demand data for 2015 ranged between 5,564TWh in the Green scenario down to 4,600TWh in the Grey. Given the economic conditions, low CO ² price and gas behind coal in the merit order for power generation, it is a fair assump- tion that the EU was more in line with the Grey scenario in 2015, reflected by the demand level and further influenced by a warmer than average year.

 1) National Grid July 2014 http://fes.nationalgrid.com/media/1071/2014fes.pdf  2) International Energy Agency https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2013.pdf

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