ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

As shown in the reality check earlier in this feedback section, during 2016 gas demand for power generation increased significantly in some countries. Analysis completed by Agora Energiewende and Sandbag  1) shows that EU emissions for the power sector fell by 4.5% in 2016. Renewables only played a minor role as solar and wind conditions were poor (increasing from 29.2% to 29.6% of the electricity mix), the key driver was a coal to gas switch which resulted in an increase of power gen- eration from gas by 101eTWh up to 598eTWh and a resulting reduction of 48Mt of CO ² emissions. The study also draws attention to the fact that gas-fired power generation was still 168 eTWh below the level seen in 2010, indication the potential that still exists to reduce emissions and provide support to variable renewables using the current infrastructure. Despite the large increase in gas-fired power generation in Blue Transition, the scenario never exceeds the volumes observed in 2010. Blue Transition would expect this fuel switch to happen across Europe driven by regulatory measures to facilitate the energy transition through the use of gas. Gas demand increased in 2016 to 4,929TWh   2) , mainly driven by a coal to gas switch in the power generation sector, illustrating what the materialisation of elements of the Blue Transition storyline could mean in terms of gas demand. This level of demand is comparable to the gas demand seen in 2020 in the Blue Transition scenario. Given the reasoning above, ENTSOG sees the gas demand represented in the Blue Transition scenario as a realistic possible future development of gas demand. The level of gas demand should not be considered optimistic, as this is not a forecast, but as a higher case with which to assess the network whilst simultaneously display- ing the benefits gas can offer in the energy transition. Assessing the network against this level of demand is prudent, especially as the comparison with gas demand scenarios from other institutions shows that this is not an extreme case, falling well below the upper range produced by the IEA World Energy Outlook 2016 and close to the IEA World Energy Outlook 2016 New Policies scenario. The Blue Transition scenario provides an alternative view of a possible future, ENTSOG would see the benefit if this scenario was further explored or considered by other organisations. ENTSOG and ENTSO-E have engaged in a joint scenario development process for the TYNDPs 2018. The stakeholder engagement process on demand scenarios was initiated in 2016 and five potential storylines were discussed with stakeholders, member states and NRAs. The Sustainable Transition storyline, which is compara- ble to Blue Transition storyline, was supported by stakeholders to be one of the three storylines to be retained for TYNDP 2018.

 1) Agora Energiewende and Sandbag (2017): Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in 2016. Review on the Developments in 2016 and Outlook on 2017 https://sandbag.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Energy-Transition-in-the-Power-Sector-in-Europe-2016.pdf  2) Based on TSO preliminary data when available, otherwise using Eurogas preliminary data: http://www.eurogas.org/uploads/media/Eurogas_press_release_-_More_gas_use_in_2015_and_2016_makes_CO2_ emissions_tumble.pdf

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