ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

2.1 Introduction

The demand chapter provides an outlook of the European gas demand for the period 2017–2037 from an ENTSOG perspective. This chapter has three specific aims. The first is to provide a context for European gas demand that currently exists and how it has developed in recent years. The second is to provide demand sce- narios for the EU supply adequacy outlook as stipulated in REG 715/2009 and TYNDP assessment. The third is to provide the detailed demand data used for this as- sessment. The demand scenarios show the evolution of the gas demand on a yearly basis. Whilst the yearly information facilitates the comparability between scenarios, the key parameters for network design and operation are based on hourly and daily (peak) demand. These high demand scenarios, on a single day or over a sustained period, indicate the capacity that a transmission system must be able to provide. This infor- mation is vital for the safe, secure and sustainable operation of a transmission system. Storylines and parameters that define these scenarios were a key part of the stake- holder engagement process, along with their alignment with other publications in terms of electricity generation and commodity prices. The scenarios are a combina- tion of bottom-up and top-down approaches. The top-down approach is based on macro-economic parameters for the final gas demand scenarios (residential & commercial, industrial and transport sectors) and cooperation with ENTSO-E to use TYNDP 2016 data within a power generation methodology (see Annex C4). The bottom-up approach is based on TSO submission of gas demand figures for their system for each scenario. This data is provided separately for final gas demand (including the split between residential & commercial, industrial and transport sectors where possible) and power generation sectors. The output of this process was shared with stakeholders as part of a workshop which took place in July 2016, designed to give early transparency on the input data that would be used for TYNDP assessment. TYNDP covers a geographical perimeter consisting of the EU-28 countries as well as Switzerland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM). For all the countries within the perimeter, gas demand was collected in existing demand areas along with gasification demand  1) . More details are available in the country specifics document (Annex C1). In addition to this, the Kaliningrad area of Russia, Ukraine and Turkey are considered with their importa- tion demand, which are exports from the EU and the TYNDP perimeter.

 1) The gasification demand was provided for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cyprus, Malta and Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.

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