ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

2.2.2.3 Split by country  1)

For most countries the highest daily consumption over the last five winters was reached during winter 2011/12.  2) See figure 2.9 to the right.

2.2.2.4 Simultaneity

Historical data shows a high level of simultaneity for peak demand across Europe, with a range between 93% and 98% from the ENTSOG calculated European Peak Simultaneity (EPS)  3) as displayed in table 2.2. As a consequence, when carrying out peak assessment in the TYNDP, ENTSOG has retained a 100% simultaneity assumption in order to avoid the risk of underplaying security of supply.

2009–2016 PEAK GAS CONSUMPTIONS AND THEIR SIMULTANEITY

Day

Peak demand (GWh/d)

Simultaneity (EPS)

Winter 2009 /10

26/01/2010

27,431

94%

Winter 2010 /11

17/12/2010

27,091

93%

Winter 2011 /12

07/02/2012

29,452

97%

Winter 2012 /13

12/12/2012

25,772

96%

Winter 2013 /14

30/01/2014

21,769

94%

Winter 2014 /15

05/02/2015

22,715

96%

Winter 2015 /16

19/01/2016

24,326

98%

Table 2.2: 2009–2016 peak gas consumptions and their simultaneity

 1) Data for BA only available from Winter 2013/14  2) The exceptions are: 2014/15 for Bosnia and Herzegovina. 2013/14 for FYROM. 2010/11 for Finland, Portugal and Sweden. 2009/10 for Ireland, Lithuania, Latvia, Slovenia, Spain and United Kingdom  3) All countries across Europe may not reach their expected highest level of demand on the same day. In order to measure the simultaneity between the peak days in different countries, ENTSOG calculates the European Peak Simultaneity (EPS). This is the ratio of the aggregated European Peak Daily Demand over the sum of all individual country peak daily demands having occurred non-simultaneously: EPS = European Peak Daily Demand / Non-simultaneous Peak Daily Demand (%)

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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report