ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

2.4 Demand scenarios

2.4.1 OVERVIEW

The long term evolution of gas demand depends on many factors, including demog- raphy, macroeconomic parameters, energy and emissions prices as well as targets set by energy and environmental policies. The scenarios for TYNDP 2017 were initially developed by ENTSOG with the help of TSO experts, to create an envelope of gas demand that would enable the TYNDP as- sessment to test the infrastructure with a range of possible futures. Storylines and parameters were established for each scenario and shared as part of the stakehold- er joint working sessions, where feedback was incorporated into the development. These would later form the guidelines for TSO to provide data that represented these visions of the future in their country. Cooperation with ENTSO-E also enabled the alignment of these scenarios with the visions presented as part of the electricity TYNDP 2016. In order to define the scenarios required for TYNDP 2017, two main axes were con- sidered, Economic Growth and Green Ambition, as shown in figure 2.21. Along these axes, four scenarios have been developed that range from Slow Progression where there is little to no stimulus to change the energy sector radically from what we see today, through to the green scenarios where decarbonisation targets have caused fundamental changes to the energy landscape. There are two scenarios that cover this, Green Evolution and EU Green Revolution, the former which takes a na- tional perspective and the latter that takes accelerated European or even global per- spective on the energy transition, in light of recent developments such as the Paris Agreement and the latest EU Climate Package. Green Evolution represents the standard bottom-up data collection process from TSOs, with data for EU Green Rev- olution being developed using a combined approach between TSO bottom-up data and top-down adjustment with EU climate targets that could be achieved earlier leading to a faster decline in gas consumption with which to perform TYNDP assess- ment. More details on this methodology can be found in the Annex C4.

2.4.2 KEY DRIVERS

Blue Transition provides a view on the future that ENTSOG believes has not been sufficiently explored or considered by other organisations but offers a viable, cost effective way of reducing emissions through using as much of the existing energy infrastructure. This can be achieved by gas: \\ dominating fossil fuel power generation sector through regulation \\ having a high penetration in the Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGV) and shipping transport sectors \\ still providing large amount of heating require- ments, especially in peak situations therefore reducing the requirement for and cost related to electricity grid expansion and reinforcement.

EU GREEN REVOLUTION

GREEN EVOLUTION

BLUE TRANSITION

ECONOMIC GROWTH SLOW PROGRESSION

GREEN AMBITION

Figure 2.21: TYNDP 2017 Demand Scenario Axis Diagram

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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report