ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

EU GREEN REVOLUTION The storyline for the EU Green Revolution scenario is largely based on the same assumptions as Green Evolution, however a number of elements have been altered in order to provide opportunities to meet the EU 2050 climate targets earlier. There are favourable economic conditions and high green ambitions that support the highest RES development. Global political decisions and public approval result in the highest priority being set to fulfil or even go beyond the environment targets. High support for renewable energy is enabled by strong growth in the European economy in the long-term perspective. This scenario is on track with the EU 2050 targets, with the potential to reach them earlier than planned. Efficiencies for given technologies undergo a fast development, the CO ² price is at the highest level. The internal energy market is well working, European member states are characterised by their strongest cooperation, especially regarding the reduction of CO ² emissions. Through a combination of economic and political factors, infrastructure projects which have a positive impact to reach the environmental targets are realised in time and large amounts of energy generation comes from renewables. This scenario expects the quickest overall decreasing trend in fossil fuel usage, especially in coal but also in gas demand. Energy efficiency shows high levels of improvement and leads overall to lower ener- gy intensity. Strong financial support and consumer engagement leads to higher penetration of cost intensive energy solutions like heat pumps and energy from biomass and also supports enduring device replacement as well as a high rate of buildings insulation. Carbon-neutral buildings are very popular and backed by a high performance of energy certificates. Buildings mainly get heated through the access to district heating and heat pumps, less so by conventional gas. There is a higher penetration of hybrid heat pumps expected in this scenario when compared to Green Evolution, leading to lower yearly consumption but equivalent demand in peak situations. The industrial sector shows similar characteristics as the residential one. High efficiency and lower energy intensity leads to a stable industrial energy demand. Energy from biomass and more electrification (“power to heat”) are used for indus- trial purposes. Carbon Capture Storage or Utilisation (“CCS”/“CCU”) contributes to the reduction of CO ² emissions. The highest penetration of renewables supported by regulation fosters the use of less polluting fuels. Hydro-storages are centralised, nuclear power remains at the same level, depending on national policies. RES backup capacity is mainly supplied by gas-fired power plants. Heating demand and the spread of electric cars are overcompensating gained energy efficiency and leads to an increasing electricity demand. Gas in the transportation sector shows a moderate penetration with some financial support. LNG becomes the main fuel for ships (small and container ships) and HGV/HDV. The high overall RES development leads also to the highest penetration of electrification in the transport sector with cars mostly running on electricity. In addition, electrification in this sector is backed by a strong financial support. On the long-run oil is being replaced as the main fuel in the transportation sector and plays a minor role in the future energy mix.

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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report