ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

2.4.5.2 Commodity Prices

For each of the scenarios, ENTSOG has used the information provided by the IEA World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2015, which considers the global context and devel- opment that influences commodity prices. This achieves a level of consistency with ENTSO-E which also used WEO as a source for prices. Although the ENTSO-E electricity TYNDP 2016 used an older version than what was available during the development of this TYNDP, analysis of the data shows that the merit order between gas and coal is the same. Table 2.5 summarises the alignment between the scenarios of the different publications.

ENTSOG Scenario

ENTSO-E Vision

IEA Scenario

Vision 1

WEO 2015 Current Policies

Slow Progression

Vision 3

WEO 2015 New Policies

Blue Transition

Vision 4

WEO 2015 450

Green Evolution

Vision 4

WEO 2015 450

EU Green Revolution

Table 2.5: Scenario alignment

40 30 35 25 20 15 10 5 €/MWh

40 30 35 25 20 15 10 5 €/MWh

Gas WEO 2015

Coal WEO 2015

0

0

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

€/MWh

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 19.96 24.31 28.66 30.20 31.73 20.73 26.36 31.99 33.65 35.32 19.19 21.62 24.06 23.42 22.78

€/MWh

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 10.10 10.53 10.96 11.29 11.61 10.64 11.50 12.36 12.79 13.22 8.60 8.54 8.49 8.38 8.28

IEA – NPS (Blue Transition/Vision 3) IEA – CPS (Slow Progression/Vision 1) IEA – 450 (Green Evolution & EU Green Revolution/Vision4)

IEA – NPS (Blue Transition/Vision 3) IEA – CPS (Slow Progression/Vision 1) IEA – 450 (Green Evolution & EU Green Revolution/Vision4)

IEA – NPS (Blue Transition/Vision 3) IEA – CPS (Slow Progression/Vision 1) IEA – 450 (Green Evolution & EU Green Revolution/Vision 4)

IEA – NPS (Blue Transition/Vision 3) IEA – CPS (Slow Progression/Vision 1) IEA – 450 (Green Evolution & EU Green Revolution/Vision 4)

100 €/t

120 €/t

Coal WEO 2015

CO

WEO 2015

2

100

80

80

60

40 30 35 25 20 15 10 5 €/MWh

Gas WEO 2015

60

40

40

20

20

0

0

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

€/t

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 70.50 73.50 76.50 78.75 81.00 74.25 80.25 86.25 89.25 92.25 60.00 59.63 59.25 58.50 57.75

€/t

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 16.50 22.16 27.75 32.63 37.50 15.00 18.75 22.50 26.25 30.00 16.50 45.75 75.00 90.00 105.00

IEA – NPS (Blue Transition/Vision 3) IEA – CPS (Slow Progression/Vision 1) IEA – 450 (Green Evolution & EU Green Revolution/Vision4)

IEA – NPS (Blue Transition/Vision 3) IEA – CPS (Slow Progression/Vision 1) IEA – 450 (Green Evolution & EU Green Revolution/Vision4)

IEA – NPS (Blue Transition/Vision 3) IEA – CPS (Slow Progression/Vision 1) IEA – 450 (Green Evolution & EU Green Revolution/Vision 4)

IEA – NPS (Blue Transition/Vision 3) IEA – CPS (Slow Progression/Vision 1) IEA – 450 (Green Evolution & EU Green Revolution/Vision 4)

0

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

IEA – NPS (Blue Transition/Vision 3)

IEA – CPS (Slow Progression/Vision 1)

IEA – 450 (Green Evolution & EU Green Revolution/Vision4)

Figure 2.23: Prices for gas, coal and CO ² . Source IEA WEO 2015

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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report