ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

Final gas demand for Green Evolution drops 12% by 2035 as energy efficiency sup- presses any increases seen due to favourable economic output in the industrial sec- tor. Electrical vehicle development subdues gas demand increase for transport and residential & commercial sees significant reductions as decarbonisation of the heat- ing sector develops. EU Green Revolution is subject to an acceleration of the same developments seen in Green Evolution after 2020. The result is a final gas demand reduction of 18% by 2035.

TWh/y

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

2017

2020

2025

2030

2035

Green Evolution

Slow Progression

Blue Transition

EU Green Revolution

Figure 2.24: Final gas demand

Sectoral

Driven by some of the factors described above, figure 2.25 displays the percentage share of demand from each sector within final demand and how these change between 2017 and 2035. Sectoral breakdown of final demand was provided by a number of countries  1) , so this data is not representative of the EU28+ as a whole.

Country level development on Final Gas Demand

Although the final demand development follows the expected trends at a EU28+ level, there are significant differences between the evolutions of demand at country level. Figure 2.26 shows the percentage increase or decline seen on a country level for each of the scenarios, which can be driven by a number of reasons, for example increases seen in the Green scenarios can be down to the shift to gas from more polluting fuels. For more information on the assumptions behind the country level evolution of demand, please refer the Country Specifics document (Annex C1).

 1) BA, BE, CZ, DE, DK, ES, GR, HR, IT, SK, UK

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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report