ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Main Report

2.5.1.2 High demand cases

Final demand levels for the peak day reflect the same order for the scenarios as seen in the volume data, with the highest demand in Blue Transition through to the Green scenarios at the lower end of the spectrum. However, all scenarios show a decreas- ing trend ranging from -15% for Green Evolution and EU Green Revolution to rough- ly a -7% change for both Blue Transition and Slow Progression by 2035. Once again these trends do not necessarily reflect the differences between the individual countries, for which the peak demand evolution between 2017 and 2035 varies between -50% and +57% depending on the scenario.

30,000 GWh/d

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

2017

2020

2025

2030

2035

EU Green Revolution EU GR Yearly Average

Green Evolution GE Yearly Average

Blue Transition BT Yearly Average

Slow Progression SP Yearly Average

Figure 2.27: Final peak gas demand

Figure 2.28 compares the final gas demand for the peak day and the 2-week high demand case average daily demand with the yearly average daily demand. The 2-week high demand case follows the same decreasing trend as the peak day with a reasonably consistent variance between the values of 19 to 20%.

Sectoral data

Peak demand in final demand sectors as shown in figure 2.29, reflects that regard- less of the scenario, residential & commercial still dominates the percentage share of demand in 2035 driven largely by the requirements for space heating. Sectoral breakdown of final demand was provided by a number of countries  1) so please note this data is not representative of the EU28+ as a whole.

 1) BA, BE, CZ, DE, DK, ES, GR, HR, IT, SK, UK

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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Main Report